Operations around Bakhmut will present Russian command with difficult choice – ISW

Specialists from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the Russian command may have to make difficult decisions over whether to start withdrawing forces from southern Ukraine or risk establishing significant vulnerabilities in Kherson or Luhansk Oblasts as a result of military operations surrounding Bakhmut.

Source: Institute for the Study of War 

Details: According to the review, Russian forces are likely moving troops from other parts of Ukraine in response to Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut.

With this in mind, analysts predict: "If Russian reinforcements already sent to Bakhmut are insufficient to hold Russian gains in the area the Russian command may face difficult choices about whether to risk creating serious vulnerabilities in Kherson or Luhansk oblasts or to begin drawing forces away from southern Ukraine.."

The report also says that Russian sources claim that on 1 July, Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front.

Analysts General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations would take longer than some Western observers expected.

According to experts, such statements about Ukrainian operations indicate that Ukrainian troops are not currently trying to conduct large-scale operations that could lead to a rapid territorial advance.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials regularly point out that the defence forces have not yet allocated a significant part of their forces for counteroffensive operations and have not yet begun the main phase of the counteroffensive.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Russians could initiate a deliberate leak of radioactive substances at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as part of a potential Russian strategy to freeze the war.

Experts believe that Russia is likely to continue to use the threat of a radiological incident to deter the Ukrainian counteroffensive and weaken Western military support for Ukraine.

Russian propagandists are probably conducting an information campaign to discredit the Wagner Group in favour of integrating former PMC fighters into the structures of the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Specialists of the Institute believe that this is support for a campaign by Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at destroying the personal reputation of the founder of Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 1 July:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on 1 July.
• US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will take longer than some Western observers had expected.
• Russian officials and sources celebrated claims that Russian forces defeated small-scale Ukrainian landings in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on 1 July as if they had won a major victory.
• The exaggerated Russian praise for defeating a small Ukrainian landing suggests either that the Russian military command sincerely fears a Ukrainian attack on east bank Kherson Oblast or that it is desperate for an informational victory following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion or both.
• Russian forces are likely responding to Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut by pulling forces from elsewhere in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Russians might initiate an intentional radioactive leak at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as part of a potential Russian strategy to freeze the war.
• Russian propagandists are likely conducting an information campaign to destroy the Wagner Group’s reputation as a uniquely effective fighting force in support of the Russian Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) effort to dismantle the Wagner Group and integrate former Wagner fighters into MoD structures.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks in and transfer airborne (VDV) elements to the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued to counterattack recently-liberated Ukrainian positions on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian security procedures on the Kerch Strait bridge are likely slowing down Russian logistics from Russia to occupied Crimea.
• Iran may be sending materiel and personnel to Russia to help construct a factory in the Republic of Tatarstan that will reportedly make Iranian combat drones.
• Ukrainian and Western sources continue to report on the abductions of Ukrainian children and adults in the occupied territories.

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