Ukraine's Defence Forces make tactical gains despite intensification of Russian operations – ISW

Ukraine’s Defence Forces have achieved tactical gains in the areas of the front where they are conducting counteroffensive actions, despite the intensification of Russian operations.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The ISW reported that Russian troops conducted a strike campaign allegedly against Ukrainian military facilities in Ukraine’s south as a clear revenge for the attack on the Crimean Bridge.

The report noted that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive actions on at least three areas of the front against intensifying Russian offensive operations, and reported tactical gains along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts on 18 July.

Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that Russian troops have recently intensified offensive operations in the vicinity of Kupiansk (between the north-eastern Kharkiv and north-western Luhansk oblasts).

This confirms ISW's assessment that Russian forces aim to draw Ukrainian reserves to the area of Kupiansk and take them away from critical areas of the battlefield where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 18 July:

• The 17 July Kerch Strait Bridge (Crimean Bridge) attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted a strike campaign ostensibly against Ukrainian military objects in southern Ukraine in explicit retaliation for the Kerch Strait Bridge attack.
• The dismissal of former Russian 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Commander Major General Ivan Popov and the issues he cited continue to have effects on Russian military operations in southern Ukraine and the discourse around these operations.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the frontline against the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations and claimed tactical gains along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on 18 July.
• Russia continues legislative manipulations to repress domestic dissent through introducing fear of criminal liability.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove line, southwest of Kreminna, and in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas and made limited territorial gains in all sectors.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations around Bakhmut and advanced north of Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia area and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reportedly made limited advances.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia oblast area and recently made limited advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Some Russian sources suggested that recent measures supporting the development of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) allow it to posture as an alternative Russian military formation.
• Russia continues to formalise methods of social programming targeted at youth in occupied areas of Ukraine.

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