ISW assesses aftermath of explosion on Crimean Bridge

Specialists from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have assessed the aftermath of the destruction of the Crimean bridge, which, in their opinion, will hinder Russian logistics from Crimea to the rear areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

Source: ISW

Details: The report indicated that the attack on the bridge across the Kerch Strait on 17 July is likely to have further effects on Russian logistics in southern Ukraine.

The Russian authorities have accused the Ukrainian special services of carrying out a drone strike on the bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of 17 July.

Russian tourists running away from occupied Crimea have most likely made the situation on the roads worse and are likely to hinder Russian logistics from Crimea to the rear areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

The ISW analysts emphasised that the bridge across the Kerch Strait and military territories in occupied Crimea are legitimate military targets for Ukrainian forces defending against the full-scale Russian invasion and Ukraine’s occupation, as previously reported by ISW and Ukrainian officials.

The ISW also stated that Russian logistical support in southern Ukraine will probably suffer in the short to medium term, adding to recent complaints of inadequate Russian supplies in southern Ukraine and potentially further undermining the credibility of the Russian Defence Ministry.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 17 July:

• The 17 July attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge will likely have significant and sustained impacts on Russian logistics as traffic from tourism to occupied Crimea jams Russian logistics to southern Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.
• The Wagner Group continues to prepare to establish a permanent presence in Belarus.
• Russia continues efforts to reorganise its domestic security apparatus in the wake of the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front over the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on 17 July.
• Russian forces conducted active offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove line and have likely made marginal tactical gains in this direction.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks southwest and south of Kreminna, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area and advanced near the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia administrative border.
• Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that Russian authorities have removed at least eight Russian military commanders without reappointing them to new positions since the start of the war.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to artificially increase the number of Russian citizens in occupied Ukraine ahead of the September regional elections.

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