Institute for Study of War reports new achievements by Ukrainian forces

As of 13 July, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian defenders conducted a counterattack in at least three sectors of the front and succeeded on some fronts.

Source: the Institute for the Study of War

Details: On July 13, Ukrainian forces carried out counteroffensive operations on at least three frontline sectors and made progress in some places, in particular in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and advanced around Bakhmut.

Analysts draw attention to the fact that Major General Ivan Popov, a former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), alleged in a leaked audio tape that Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, fired him for persistently complaining to higher commanders about issues in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The ISW has previously noted that Putin ignored complaints from Russian officials who spoke on behalf of Russian military personnel – likely to distance himself from Russian military failures.

The ISW also assessed that public disagreements between Russian troops in Ukraine on supplies and combat missions, as well as the obvious need for the Russian Ministry of Defence to negotiate with subordinate commanders on these issues, indicate serious problems in the system of subordination.

The lack of reserves in Russia probably did not allow Gerasimov to seriously consider Popov's appeal, and the dismissal of Popov once again demonstrated that Russian troops were not capable of rotating forces.

Experts also note that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated the formulaic Russian rhetoric aimed at curbing Western security assistance to Ukraine after the NATO summit. He said that Russia would recognise the appearance of the F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine as a nuclear threat, since the F-16s are technically capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The ISW assesses that the Kremlin regularly intensifies information operations about nuclear escalation with the West because of the war in Ukraine or those about Russia's readiness for negotiations, trying to weaken the Western support for Ukraine.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 July:

• Former Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov claimed in leaked audio that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems on the western Zaporizhia Oblast frontline to senior commanders.
• Popov likely attempted to appeal to the Kremlin to partially or fully strip Gerasimov of command over operations in Ukraine.
• Gerasimov may have tried to shield Putin from unwanted criticism to uphold Putin’s ignorance by firing Popov before he could appeal directly to the Kremlin.
• Popov’s attempt to directly appeal to Putin for support and his insubordination of Gerasimov’s command is indicative of a pattern of corrosive behavior that has developed within the Russian command and the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
• Russian milbloggers expressed varied reactions to Popov’s dismissal, though none disagreed with Popov’s complaints about problems Russian forces experience on the front.
• Disruptions to the Russian command overseeing Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine will likely have some immediate but marginal impacts on Russian forces.
• Popov’s dismissal over the issue of Russian casualties and reported complaints about lack of force rotations further supports ISW’s assessment that Russian defenses in Ukraine are likely brittle
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 13 and made gains in some areas.
• The Kremlin reportedly ordered the detention and suspension of several senior military officers following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24, supporting ISW’s prior assessment that the Kremlin likely intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal.
• Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed drone strikes across Ukraine on July 13.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources engaged in positional battles near Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks and reportedly advanced around Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces reported conducting limited offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts border area.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and made some gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of July 13.
• Russia may not be fulfilling some of its commitments to Iran in their bilateral security partnership, even as the Russian military continues to rely heavily on Iranian-made drones in Ukraine.
• The Associated Press (AP) reported on July 13 that Russian forces and occupation administrations are conducting a wide scale campaign to detain and abuse civilians and are planning to build additional internment infrastructure in the occupied territories.

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