ISW explains why Russia's Defence Minister is trying to portray Ukraine's counteroffensive as failed

Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu is trying to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed operation despite the Kremlin’s instructions not to downplay the gains made in the counteroffensive and not to exaggerate Russia’s successes, in order to position the Ministry of Defence as an effective leader in Ukraine hostilities following the recent Wagner Group mutiny.

Source: ISW report from 11 July

Quote from ISW: "Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu attempted to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed effort against the backdrop of the NATO Summit.

Shoigu implausibly claimed on 11 July that Ukrainian forces have lost 26,000 servicemembers and 1,244 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles since starting counteroffensive operations on 4 June.

Shoigu also tried to present possible Ukrainian interdiction efforts in southern Ukraine as similarly ineffective by claiming that Russian air defences have intercepted 176 HIMARS rockets and 27 Storm Shadow cruise missiles since the start of the counteroffensive."

Details: According to the ISW assessment, Russian Defence Ministry reporting on Ukrainian losses is "likely highly inflated", with even Russian military bloggers pointing out that the Defence Ministry was counting strikes on already damaged and destroyed vehicles as new losses of Ukrainian equipment.

"Shoigu’s rhetoric about the Ukrainian counteroffensive notably contradicts the Kremlin’s reported media guidance instructing Russian state media not to downplay the counteroffensive or overstate Russian successes. Shoigu may be increasingly ignoring established Kremlin guidance on covering the counteroffensive in a renewed effort to portray the MoD as an effective manager of the war in Ukraine following the Wagner Group’s rebellion," the ISW report reads.

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