Ukraine's army liberates almost as much territory in 5 weeks as Russians captured in 6 months – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that the Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberated as much territory in five weeks of counteroffensive as the Russians captured in half a year.

Source: Institute for the Study of War

Details: According to the report, on 10 July, Russian ground communication lines and Bakhmut are under the fire control of the Ukrainian forces.

Sources from both Ukraine and Russia have recently claimed that Ukraine is advancing on the Bakhmut front and on its southwestern flanks, citing certain geographical factors that could provide Ukrainian soldiers with a firepower advantage.

In addition, analysts report that Ukrainian soldiers engaged in counteroffensive actions on 10 July in at least three different areas of the frontline.

Based on its own array of geographical data, ISW has determined that since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on 4 June, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed about 253 square kilometres of land. The review clarifies that Ukrainian data differ from ISW data due to different approaches to calculations.

In comparison, since 1 January, Russian troops have captured a total of 282 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory.

In five weeks, Ukrainian forces liberated almost as much territory as Russian troops captured in six months.

To quote the ISW’s key takeaways for 13 May:

• Ukrainian officials stated on 10 July that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) around the city.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on 10 July.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff and overall theatre commander Army General Valery Gerasimov’s first public appearance since Wagner’s rebellion supports ISW’s previous assessment that he will likely retain his official position within the Russian military.
• The Kremlin and Western intelligence officials reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on 29 June (and/or 1 July) following Wagner’s armed rebellion on 24 June.
• Putin’s decision to meet with Prigozhin is inconsistent with the Kremlin’s prior rhetoric about Prigozhin and his role within the Wagner private military company (PMC).
• A Kremlin-affiliated war correspondent characterised the Putin-Prigozhin meeting as the Kremlin’s attempt to "gently" replace Prigozhin and restructure Wagner.
• Gerasimov’s public reemergence and the acknowledgment of the Putin-Prigozhin meeting is likely a part of the Kremlin’s wider narrative effort to portray itself as fully in control following Wagner’s rebellion while also reaching out to those who lean toward loyalty toward Wagner and especially Prigozhin himself.
• It is unclear whether any agreements between the Kremlin and Prigozhin will prompt significant numbers of Wagner personnel to agree to sign contracts with the MoD.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen Akhmat Special Forces have deployed to the Bakhmut direction, but a local Ukrainian commander denied having encountered Chechen forces, suggesting that these Chechen elements are not making significant frontline contributions to Russian operations in Ukraine.
• Former Russian officer and prominent critical nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin claimed on 10 July that he managed to deliver a speech in St. Petersburg despite efforts by law enforcement to censor him and prevent the speech from happening
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and in the Bakhmut direction.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 10 July.
• Russian forces are continuing to suffer significant casualties on the battlefield.
• Russian occupation officials acknowledged widespread utility service disruptions in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

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