Ukrainians abroad expect the war to be longer than Ukrainians at home

According to a survey, citizens who remain in Ukraine hope for a shorter war than those Ukrainians who are refugees in Europe.

Source: survey conducted by the sociological group Rating on 4-10 July among citizens living in Ukraine and abroad

Details: The results of the surveys in Ukraine and in Europe show certain differences in the assessment of the duration of the war by Ukrainians, according to the sociologists of the Rating Group.

Thus, among Ukrainians living in Ukraine, 32% believe that Ukraine needs six months to a year to win, 30% – more than a year, and 17% believe that it will take several months or less to achieve victory.

Among Ukrainians in Europe, the prevailing opinion is that it will take more than a year to win (40%), 23% believe it will take six months to a year, and only 12% believe it will be achieved in the short term.

3% of Ukrainians in Europe do not believe in Ukraine's victory at all. In Ukraine, the number is 1%.

In the macro-regional context, there are also certain differences in assessments among Ukrainians living in Ukraine. The number of those who believe in a relatively short time frame for achieving victory is higher among residents of the centre, west, and south. Residents of the east and the capital are less optimistic or uncertain.

Sociologists interviewed 2,000 respondents in Ukraine and 2,000 Ukrainian refugees in Europe in early July.

The survey in Ukraine. Respondents: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories and territories where Ukrainian mobile communication does not work. The results are weighted using the latest data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The representative sample is 2,000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The accuracy of representativeness of the survey with a confidence level of 0.95: no more than 2.2%. Dates of the survey: 7-10 July 2023. 

The survey of Ukrainians in Europe. Respondents: Ukrainians aged 18 and older who have found temporary refuge in European countries after 24.02.2022. The results are weighted using up-to-date UNHC (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) data – an indicator of Ukrainians who have applied for asylum, temporary residence  or similar national protection programs. The representative sample is 2,000 respondents in 31 European countries. The online survey was conducted on the Rating Online research platform. The accuracy of representativeness of the study with a confidence level of 0.95: no more than 3.2%. Dates of the survey: 4-10 July 2023.

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