ISW says balance of evidence, arguments and rhetoric indicates that Russia deliberately damaged Kakhovka HPP

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is currently not ready to make final assessments about those responsible for the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) disaster. However, the balance of evidence, argument and rhetoric indicates that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam, the ISW believes.

Source: ISW

Details: US National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby said the US still could not say definitively what caused the dam to collapse, but was evaluating reports that "the blast was caused by Russia". NBC also reported that the US has intelligence that points to Russia's responsibility for the dam's destruction, but is currently working on declassifying the information. In addition, various European officials have stated that they believe Russia is involved in the destruction of the hydroelectric power plant.

Quote from the ISW: "Statements by US and European officials are generally consistent with ISW’s October 2022 forecast that the Russians have a greater and clearer interest in flooding the lower Dnipro despite the damage to their own prepared defensive positions.

ISW previously assessed on 21 October 2022, that Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam and pointed out that 80 settlements would risk flooding. ISW further assessed that by contrast, Russia may use the flooding to widen the Dnipro River and complicate Ukrainian counteroffensive attempts across the already-challenging water feature.

Russian sources have expressed intense and explicit concern over the possibility that Ukraine has been preparing to cross the river and counterattack into east bank Kherson Oblast. Available footage from June 6, corroborated by claims made by Russian milbloggers, suggests that the flooding washed away Ukrainian positions near the Dnipro shoreline and forced Ukrainian formations to evacuate while under Russian artillery fire.

There is also the possibility, of course, that pre-existing structural damage to the dam eventually caused breakage and flooding, as some sources have additionally suggested, although reports of noises like explosions are not necessarily consistent with this notion.

ISW cannot offer a definitive assessment of responsibility for the June 6 incident at this time but finds that the balance of evidence, reasoning, and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam."

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