ISW explains why it is not commenting on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted that they are not currently making any assumptions about the counteroffensive operation by Ukraine’s Defence Forces, since it is unknown when its outcome will be, while "Russian sources may falsely claim to have defeated it".

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW’s report noted that Russian and Ukrainian officials have been giving out signals about the beginning of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

ISW noted that it has seen an increase in combat activity on various areas of the front, but will not speculate on the intentions, weight or direction of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

"A successful counteroffensive operation may take days, weeks, or even months before its outcome becomes fully clear, during which time Russian sources may falsely claim to have defeated it," ISW noted.

The report also pointed out that the Russian Volunteer Corps stated that their operations are ongoing in a border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of 5 June.

Meanwhile, Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic, said that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, probably partially in order to keep his troops from participating in hostilities in Ukraine.

The ISW pointed out that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is trying to alleviate logistical difficulties in occupied Crimea by moving resources to the Russian mainland.

Therefore, Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Press Centre for Operational Command Pivden (South), reported on 5 June that Russian troops are moving the logistical support centres of the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner PMC financier, continues to make efforts to deepen the differences between the Wagner Group and the Russian Defence Ministry.

Prigozhin's press service published a video on 4 June in which a Wagner fighter interrogates a Russian soldier, who introduced himself as Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin of the 72nd Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps).

The ISW’s report noted that as Prigozhin continues to try to maintain media relevance, his "rhetorical charades" are likely to further deepen the rift between the Defence Ministry and Wagner Group, thus hampering the overall combat capability of both forces and further generating growing discontent in the information space that previously supported him.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 5 June:

• Russian and Ukrainian officials are signalling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited successful offensives north and southwest of Bakhmut.
• The pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) claimed that it continues to operate in a Russian border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of 5 June.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, likely partially in order to keep his forces out of combat in Ukraine.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the Wagner Group and the Russian Defence Ministry.
• Russian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations northeast of Kharkiv City and continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and made further limited tactical gains.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target rear Russian positions throughout southern Ukraine.
• Iran has allegedly signed contracts with Russia for about $1.74 million in ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian sources and Belarusian sources indicated that Belarus has been involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

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