Russian authorities do not coordinate actions and do not know how to respond to operations in Belgorod Oblast

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Russia's various levels of government do not coordinate their actions and do not know how to respond to the events in the country's Belgorod Oblast.

Source: the ISW 

Details: The ISW has indicated that the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Legion of Freedom of Russia (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on 4 June and reportedly continue to operate in the Russian border town.

Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has confirmed that fighting was taking place in Novaya Tavolzhanka, although the Russian Ministry of Defence has claimed that units of the Western Military District and the Russian Border Guard Service struck a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group near the settlement, forcing it to retreat.

According to the so-called Russian military bloggers and media outlets, a sabotage and reconnaissance group of 20 people entered Novaya Tavolzhanka and remained there.

Experts have also reported that Gladkov responded to a demand from the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Legion of Freedom of Russia to negotiate the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war. He initially agreed to the meeting, but then refused.

The ISW analysts have concluded that Russia's dissonant reaction and reports of the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to respond to these limited raids.

Quote: "The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the Ministry of Defence and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids."

More details: According to the experts, the reaction (of the Russian authorities – ed.) was mainly focused on information effects, and there is no indication that the Russian leadership has defined a broader policy to prevent further limited raids into Russia's border regions.

It is also noted that it remains unclear whether the Russian authorities are organising evacuations in response to these actions, although Gladkov claimed that 4,000 residents of the vulnerable area are currently in temporary accommodation centres due to the evacuation.

The experts have noted that limited raids and shelling of the border in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the focus of criticism of the Russian military leadership.

Thus, the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, continued to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticise the Russian Ministry of Defence on 3 and 4 June, in particular, criticising the lack of response from Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, Colonel General Alexander Lapin and Army General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff.

In addition, Prigozhin stated on 4 June that Ukrainian forces might have regained positions in the southwestern part of Bakhmut, confirming repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces were holding positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city.

Prigozhin said that, according to some unverified reports, Ukrainian forces had set up observation posts on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 4 June:

• Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement.
• Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov responded to a RDK and LSR demand to negotiate for the exchange of captured Russian prisoners of war (POWs).
• The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids.
• The limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast are increasingly becoming the current focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership.
• Russian forces again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles on 4 June making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in southwestern Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupiansk-Svatove line.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and Marinka.
• Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence submitted a draft government decree that will no longer require an individual’s presence at an enlistment office for military registration.
• Russian officials continue to use rest and rehabilitation schemes to deport Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia.

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