ISW predicts how Ukraine will use intercepted initiative on Bakhmut front
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that the recognition of the "strategic initiative" on the Bakhmut front is connected with the desire to use this initiative to an even greater extent.
Source: ISW
Details: The report indicated that Ukraine’s General Staff has declared that Ukrainian forces have seized the "strategic initiative" on the Bakhmut front, conducting a large-scale offensive there.
According to the ISW, Ukrainian officials now are likely confirming that Ukrainian forces have the initiative in order to give a signal that they intend to use the initiative to a greater extent.
Ukrainian troops conducted offensive operations on at least two other parts (apart from the Bakhmut front – ed.) of the front line and, according to reports, achieved success on 29 June.
The ISW also noted that the Kremlin may intend to take formal control of the Wagner Group and turn it into a state organisation after its armed rebellion, although it is unclear whether the Kremlin has undertaken to adhere to this course of action.
Recent satellite images may have captured the active construction of a possible new Wagner Group base in the Asipovichy district of Belarus.
Military analysts emphasised that fighters from the Wagner Group may be deployed in other places in Belarus. But nothing is particularly unique or interesting about the potential Wagner base in the Asipovichy district.
Quote: "Belarus hosts many training grounds and field camps that accommodated 30,000 Russian soldiers in early 2022 — many of which were on the border with Ukraine in Gomel and Brest oblasts.
The Wagner Group in Belarus could use some of these facilities as bases as well as or instead of the rumoured base in Asipovichy."
The ISW also pointed out that Kremlin-linked businessmen may acquire Prigozhin's media empire, probably as part of an effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.
The report noted that on 29 June, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to answer questions about the whereabouts of Army General Sergei Surovikin, which sparked new speculation in the Russian information space.
Experts suggested that Peskov's refusal indicates that Russian officials may conduct investigations into Surovikin.
In addition, Western observers are continuing to speculate about the current location of the Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov after the Wagner Group rebellion.
On the other hand, experts have reiterated that Gerasimov has not appeared in public for a long time even before.
In the opinion of military analysts, it is quite possible that Putin has not yet decided how to fully respond to the Wagner Group rebellion. This also applies to a potential renewal of the command structure of the Russian Armed Forces or a change in Putin's preferences among the military leadership.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 29 June:
- The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces seized the "strategic initiative" on the Bakhmut front and are currently conducting a broad offensive in the area.
- Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two other sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on 29 June.
- The Kremlin may intend to assume formal control over the Wagner Group following its armed rebellion and turn it into a state-owned enterprise, although it is not clear if the Kremlin has committed itself to such a course of action.
- Recent satellite imagery may have detected active construction of a speculated new Wagner Group base in Asipovichy, Belarus.
- Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.
- Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to address Army General Sergei Surovikin’s whereabouts on 29 June, prompting more speculations in the Russian information space.
- Western observers continue to speculate about the whereabouts of Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov following Wagner’s rebellion, although his lack of public appearance is not necessarily indicative of his current official standing within the Russian military leadership
- Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
- Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
- Russian forces in early May constructed a dam on the outskirts of Tokmak in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- A Russian BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) affiliated source claimed that Russian forces are moving military equipment to unspecified areas on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
- The Crimea-based Atesh partisan group stated that Russian forces are increasing their presence in Armyansk to defend key infrastructure in northern Crimea.
- Russian Cossack armed formations are reportedly signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) as part of a larger formalisation effort to integrate irregular forces into MoD structures.
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