Discussions in Russia about who is responsible for successes in vicinity of Marinka – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that the emphasis in the debate in the Russian information space on the apportionment of responsibility for small tactical successes in the vicinity of Bakhmut is shifting to the ongoing offensive operation to occupy Marinka.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW reported that one prominent milblogger associated with the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) has stated that units of the 150th and 20th Motorised Rifle Divisions (8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) were primarily responsible for the successes around Marinka. According to this milblogger, the DPR 100th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade, the Sparta Battalion, as well as operational-tactical groups Kaskad and Rusich also deserve responsibility for the achievements around Marinka.

The ISW noted that the discussions about Marinka coincide with reports of the arrival of Chechen forces, who will take over the Donetsk front and complete the occupation of Marinka and other settlements around it.

Quote from ISW: "These discussions are likely aimed at undermining Kadyrov’s ability to use any subsequent tactical gains to elevate his standing and reintroduce his paramilitary forces as a main irregular offensive force following the culmination of Wagner forces and their withdrawal from the frontlines.

Many irregular formations, primarily DPR forces, have served on the Donetsk front and may be resentful of Kadyrov’s attempt to assume responsibility for any success following months of attritional offensives.

This discussion around Marinka also coincides with a concerted attack from Chechen commanders against Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has generated debates between Chechen and Wagner commanders about which forces have been more successful fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin routinely emphasised Wagner’s responsibility for tactical gains around Bakhmut.

Other irregular forces may be trying to replicate this informational campaign in Marinka and elsewhere in Ukraine and are likely competing amongst each other for envisioned favour from the Kremlin. 

The capture of Bakhmut, despite offering no operational advantages, did allow the Kremlin to present a Russian victory, if only temporarily, to the Russian public. 

The capture of Marinka, a settlement with a pre-war population of 10,000 people and with no tactical or operational significance, would likely present marginal informational benefit to the Kremlin at most. 

Russian forces have advanced less than 2km from 2014-controlled territory around Marinka since the start of the full-scale invasion, suggesting that this entire conversation is premature."

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