Lukashenko probably using Wagner Group to "buy manoeuvring space" – ISW
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, is probably trying to use the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) to gain "manoeuvring space" and is seeking to take it under his control.
Source: ISW
Quote: "Lukashenko likely seeks to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to buy manoeuvring space to balance against the Kremlin campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State… [and] likely seeks to closely control any Wagner Group forces that move into Belarus."
Details: In addition, according to the ISW, Lukashenko may use the Russian nuclear weapons that he has received recently in order to slow down Russia’s campaign of absorbing Belarus.
The ISW noted that the ongoing power struggle between Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin is far from over and will have short-term and long-term consequences that could be beneficial for Ukraine.
Background:
- During the rebellion, Prigozhin allegedly came to an agreement through the intermediary of the self-proclaimed Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko and would go to Belarus, and ordered all his mercenaries to turn back.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Wagner fighters will be able to sign a contract with the Russian Defence Ministry, resign or "go to Belarus".
- Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, claims that Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), is in Belarus.
- Russian outlet Verstka ["Layout"] reported that camps to accommodate the Wagner Group fighters are being built in Belarus.
- The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, expects that the Wagner Group commanders will share their experience and help the Belarusian Armed Forces improve their skills.
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