Putin will not replace Shoigu yet, so as not to look like he has given in to Prigozhin – ISW

ISW analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not change the head of the Ministry of Defence for the time being, so that it does not look like he is fulfilling the demand of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was seeking Sergei Shoigu’s dismissal.

Source: ISW report on 26 June

Quote from ISW: "The Kremlin is likely attempting to signal that Shoigu will maintain his position for now and that Putin will not give into Prigozhin’s blackmail attempt."

Details: This is probably supported by the announcement of the Russian Ministry of Defence that on 26 June, Shoigu allegedly visited an unspecified forward command post of the Western Group of Russian troops in Ukraine. This was his first public appearance after Prigozhin's march on Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.

Earlier, the Russian Defence Ministry reported that the Western Group of Forces is operating on the Kupiansk-Svatove front in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts.

It was reported that Shoigu met with Western Group of Forces commander Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov and set him the task of preventing the advance of Ukrainian troops at the front.

At the same time, ISW analysts emphasise that Shoigu did not visit the headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces in Rostov-on-Don after the city was seized by the Wagner fighters, and did not communicate in any other way with the forces of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of Ukraine after the end of the armed rebellion.

Even though Russian military bloggers continued to speculate on the topic of a change in the Russian military command, in particular mentioning the name of Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Tula Oblast, for the post of Shoigu, analysts do not believe that Putin will quickly carry out such a shift.

"It is currently unclear if the Kremlin will replace Shoigu and Gerasimov, but it is unlikely that the Kremlin would make such drastic command changes immediately since doing so would seem to be conceding to Prigozhin’s demands. ISW has previously assessed that Putin values loyalty, and Shoigu and Gerasimov have demonstrated their allegiance to Putin," analysts conclude.

For reference: According to Russian pro-war media and Telegram channels, 13 to 20 people were killed as a result of the mutiny by Wagner Group fighters.

The Russian army also suffered losses in equipment: according to Vazhnye Istorii [Important Stories], a Russian media outlet, these include three Mi-8 electronic warfare helicopters, one transport Mi-8 helicopter, two attack helicopters (Ka-52 and Mi-35M), as well as an Il-22M command post aircraft and two armoured vehicles (KamAZ and Tigr). The Wagner PMC lost two UAZs, one KamAZ and a VPK-Ural armoured vehicle.

At the same time, according to the Russian service of Radio Liberty, citing estimates by the Dutch Oryx project, the Wagnerites shot down an Il-22M aircraft and six Russian army helicopters during the mutiny.

Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, acknowledged the deaths of Russian pilots during the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group, but he did not make any high-profile statements on this matter. On the contrary, he met with the heads of law enforcement agencies and thanked them for "suppressing" the rebellion of Wagner Group mercenaries and also thanked the Wagners fighters themselves for "not resorting to fratricidal bloodshed".

Background:

• On the evening of 23 June, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the regular Russian army had launched a missile strike on the Wagner mercenaries’ rear camps. He therefore deployed 25,000 of his mercenaries "to restore justice".
• Prigozhin claimed that his forces had taken control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, including the air base, and were heading "to Moscow" and that his soldiers had shot down three Russian helicopters. Wagner mercenaries also seized military facilities in the Russian city of Voronezh.
• In an emergency address on 24 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was "fighting for survival" and that attempts were being made to "organise a rebellion" in the country.
• The Russian presidential administration feared that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group fighters could be near Moscow, and that fighting would begin near Russia’s capital. Ukrainian intelligence had information that Putin had urgently left Moscow for his residence in Valdai. The convoy of Wagner fighters was spotted 400 km from Moscow.
• On the evening of Saturday, 24 June, after a conversation with Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Prigozhin announced that his mercenaries were turning their convoys around and going in the opposite direction, back to their field camps. Later, the Kremlin announced that the criminal case against Prigozhin would be closed and he would "go to Belarus".

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