Next 24 hours will be decisive for Putin – CNN

Russian President Vladimir Putin risks losing his grip on power, and the next 24 hours are likely to be decisive.

Source: CNN

Quote from CNN: "The Russian president is facing the most serious threat to his hold on power in all the 23 years he’s run the nuclear state. And it is staggering to behold the veneer of total control he has maintained all that time – the ultimate selling point of his autocracy – crumble overnight.

It was both inevitable and impossible. Inevitable, as the mismanagement of the war had meant only a system as homogeneously closed and immune to criticism as the Kremlin could survive such a heinous misadventure.

And impossible as Putin’s critics simply vanish, or fall out of windows, or are poisoned savagely. Yet now the fifth largest army in the world is facing a weekend in which fratricide – the turning of their guns upon their fellow soldiers – is the only thing that can save the Moscow elite from collapse."

Details: CNN said that because Putin has always been seen as a "master tactician" [at least in Russia - ed.], Yevgeny Prigozhin’s initial threats and disobedience were seen as Putin’s bid to "keep his generals on edge".

It is likely that the Wagner Group has been planning the current operation for some time and has used the airstrike on the Wagner Group camp, allegedly carried out by the Russian armed forces, as an excuse to launch it. This is thought to be the case particularly in light of the speed with which Wagner Group fighters were able to mobilise and capture Rostov-on-Don – a feat that would be difficult to achieve without advance planning.

Quote from CNN: "Perhaps Prigozhin dreamt he could push Putin into a change at the top of a ministry of defence the Wagner chief has publicly berated for months. But Putin’s address on Saturday morning has eradicated that prospect. This is now an existential choice for Russia’s elite – between the president’s faltering regime, and the dark, mercenary Frankenstein it created to do its dirty work, which has turned on its masters."

"Ukraine will likely be celebrating the disastrous timing of this insurrection inside Russia’s ranks. It will likely alter the course of the war in Kyiv’s favour. But rebellions rarely end in Russia – or anywhere – with the results they set out to achieve. The 1917 removal of Tsar Nicholas II in Russia turned into the Bolshevik Revolution, Lenin and then the Soviet Empire.

As this rare Jacobean drama of Russian basic human frailty plays out, it is not inevitable that improvements will follow. Prigozhin may not win, and the foundations of the Kremlin’s control may not collapse. But a weakened Putin may do irrational things to prove his strength."

Details: Putin, however, "may prove unable to accept the logic of defeat" on the frontlines in Ukraine in the coming months.

At the same time, CNN stressed that from this moment on, it is impossible to imagine Putin’s regime ever reclaiming the same amount of control as it once had. "And it is inevitable that further turmoil and change is ahead," CNN concluded.

Updated: Ukraine’s special services have not made any predictions regarding how the situation in Russia will unfold.

"It would be irresponsible to say the next 24 hours will be critical for one person or another. It is complete chaos there [in Russia – ed.] right now. The situation will become clearer in the coming days," an influential source told Ukrainska Pravda.

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