Russian authorities' reaction to events in Belgorod Oblast indicates "heightened anxiety" – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have indicated that the reaction of the Russian authorities regarding the operations in Belgorod Oblast indicates "heightened anxiety about the war in Ukraine" throughout the Russian information space and society.

Source: ISW

Details: The report notes that on 1 June, units from the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia legion carried out another operation in Belgorod Oblast.

The governor of Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that "there was no enemies on the territory of Belgorod Oblast" during the breakthrough attempt, although geolocation videos show that the previously-mentioned military units were allegedly operating on Russian territory.

Analysts state that the reaction of Russian officials and so-called military bloggers to the limited operation in Belgorod Oblast shows that there is increased anxiety about the war in Ukraine throughout the Russian information space.

On 1 June, Kremlin spokesman Dmytro Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is constantly receiving information about the situation in Belgorod Oblast and that Putin awarded the leader of the Shebekin district, Volodymyr Zhdanov, with the "Order of Courage" for his response to the situation at the border.

Experts emphasise the fact that on 1 June, Gladkov agreed with the authorities of several Russian regions to take in 1,200 residents of Belgorod during the evacuation.

He also announced the evacuation of 200 children to the Penza region and plans to evacuate another 600 children to the Kaluga and Yaroslavl regions on 3 June.

According to analysts, the talks about the evacuation, Putin's attention, and the characterization of the previously-mentioned operations by the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation as an attempt to "invade" Russian territory indicate that the Kremlin is trying to use these limited operations to support current informational drives that aim to depict the war in Ukraine as "existential" and gain support inside the country for a prolonged war.

The Institute review recalls that Russian troops carried out another series of missile strikes on Ukraine on the night of 31 May to 1 June and in the afternoon of 1 June.

The ISW noted that it had previously assessed that the launch of a recent air campaign by the Russian forces is aimed at weakening Ukraine's counteroffensive capabilities, but the fact that Russia is prioritising strikes on Kyiv means that it will further limit the campaign's ability to significantly deter potential counteroffensive actions of Ukraine.

The report also indicates that on 1 June, Chechen commanders and officials carried out coordinated attacks on Wagner Group financier Yevhen Prigozhin, intending to undermine his authority.

Prigozhin responded to the attacks by saying he would continue to speak out until Russian Defence Ministry officials are punished "for mistakes in planning the invasion of Ukraine."

Experts note that the Chechen attacks on Prigozhin may be part of the Kremlin's efforts to discredit and undermine his authority at a time when the Wagnerians are leaving the front line.

The attacks, in particular, took place on 1 June - the day Prigozhin announced that Wagner would withdraw troops from the frontline, and on his birthday.

To quote the ISW's key takeaways for 1 June: 

• Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes on Ukraine overnight on 31 May to 1 June and during the day on 1 June.
• Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) reportedly conducted another raid into Belgorod Oblast on 1 June.
• Russian officials and milbloggers’ responses to the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast are indicative of a continued heightened anxiety within the Russian information space regarding the war in Ukraine.
• Chechen commanders and officials launched a concerted attack on Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on 1 June in a likely attempt to undermine Prigozhin’s appeal.
• Prigozhin responded to the attacks claiming that he will continue to voice his opinions until Russian MoD officials are punished for their mistakes in planning the invasion of Ukraine
• Chechen attacks on Prigozhin’s character may be a part of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin as his forces withdraw from the frontlines.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
• The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of June 1, and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
• The Russian State Duma rejected a draft law that would have granted mobilisation exemptions to candidates and doctors of the science.
• Russian occupation authorities announced that regional elections in occupied territories will take place on 10 September.
• Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced on 31 May that Ukraine is investigating over 2,900 crimes against children committed by Russian forces.

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