Putin consolidates Russia's military control over Belarus with statements on transfer of nuclear weapons

Military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Kremlin's statements about the transfer of nuclear weapons are a consolidation of Russia's de facto military control over Belarus.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW has noted that Ukrainian forces continued counter-offensives on at least three frontline areas on 16 June and reportedly made progress.

The analysts pointed out that the Kremlin announced that Russia had begun transferring tactical nuclear weapons (under Russian control) to Belarus in accordance with previously announced plans.

According to the ISW's preliminary assessment, the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is part of a long-term effort to consolidate Russia's de facto military control over Belarus, and it is unlikely that this will mean any Russian escalation.

Analysts did not ignore the fact that several current and former Russian municipal officials signed an open letter calling on Russian troops to return to the "universally recognised" borders of the Russian Federation due to the crisis caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam.

In particular, officials from Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as Moscow and Leningrad oblasts, signed a document stating that the destruction of the Kakhovka dam will affect the planet's ecosystem, health issues and economy for many decades.

The review emphasises that Russian officials not affiliated with the Kremlin may be using public concern over the environmental and humanitarian situation associated with the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam to express opposition to the war in Ukraine without directly criticising the military actions themselves, as the Kremlin has created conditions for "crackdowns against anti-war dissent".

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 16 June:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on 16 June and reportedly made gains.
• Russian forces targeted Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih with cruise missiles and kamikaze drones on 15-16 June.
• The heads of state of seven African countries met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 16 June in Kyiv as part of a joint peace mission.
• The Kremlin claimed Russia has begun transferring tactical nuclear warheads (under Russian control) to Belarus, in line with previously announced plans.
• Select current and former Russian municipal officials signed an open letter calling on Russian forces to return to "universally" recognised Russian borders due to the crisis caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in the Vuhledar area.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and reportedly made gains in this area.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence is attempting to monetarily incentivise the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment, likely to bolster ongoing recruitment efforts.
• Russian and occupation authorities are attempting to strengthen Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Russia and occupied Ukraine.

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