Ukrainian counteroffensive: ISW analyses success of Ukrainian defenders

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have reported that Ukrainian Defence Forces are continuing to advance near Bakhmut and have made some progress in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Source: ISW

Details: The report noted that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four fronts on 9 June.

The Russian Ministry of Defence stated that Russian troops had repelled limited and localised ground attacks by Ukrainian forces in the vicinity of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian officials said that Ukrainian troops had advanced 1.2 kilometres as they continued their offensive near Bakhmut on 8 June.

In addition, Ukrainian Defence Forces continued limited counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast near the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblast borders on 9 June and made tactical gains in the area.

Ukrainian forces also continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the night of 8-9 June and during the day on 9 June, and a Russian source suggested that Ukrainian forces had made some progress during these attacks.

The ISW analysts point out that Ukrainian officials have explicitly acknowledged that Ukrainian troops expect to lose equipment during counteroffensive operations.

ISW experts say that the structure of the Russian command responsible for the war in the southern regions of Ukraine is unclear and likely to overlap.

After analysing statements made by the Russian military and their actions, the analysts have concluded that the command relationship between the four Russian military leaders – Romanchuk [Colonel General Alexander Romanchuk, the commander of the Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front], Teplinsky [Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, the deputy commander of the Joint Russian forces in Ukraine], Kuzovlev [Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev, the commander of the southern grouping of the Joint Russian forces in Ukraine] and Gerasimov [Army General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces], who are said to be in charge of Russian troops in the region, remains unclear.

The White House announced on 9 June that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing plant in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, underlining the growing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow despite Western sanctions.

Analysts have noted that Valery Gerasimov discussed strengthening Russian-Chinese military cooperation with Liu Zhengli, Chief of the Joint Staff Division of the Central Military Commission of China, on 9 June.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 9 June:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on 9 June, making further gains around Bakhmut and in Western Donetsk.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on 9 June that the Ukrainian counteroffensive recently began and noted that Ukrainian forces still have offensive potential, a departure from previous Kremlin efforts to downplay Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Contrarily, much of the Russian information space prematurely claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed after Russian forces damaged more Western-provided Ukrainian military equipment on 9 June.
• Ukrainian officials directly acknowledged that Ukrainian forces expect to suffer equipment losses during counteroffensive operations.
• The Russian command structure responsible for areas of southern Ukraine is unclear and likely overlapping.
• Russian forces carried out missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on the night of 8-9 June.
• Several independent sources reported additional evidence that an internal explosion likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam on 6 June.
• The White House revealed on 9 June that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, underscoring the growing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow despite Western sanctions.
• General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff Army, discussed increasing Russian-Chinese military cooperation with Liu Zhenli, Chinese Central Military Commission Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff, on 9 June.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited and localised ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia continues to evade international sanctions and has reportedly restored access to key Western microchips and electronics that Russia needs to produce military equipment.
• A Ukrainian report states that Russian authorities may be preparing evacuations from northern Crimea.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on 9 June that Russia will begin deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus in July 2023, and this is not an escalation from Putin’s prior nuclear weapons rhetoric. 

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