Putin wants to demonstrate influence in Central Asia with 9 May Victory Day parade – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe Russia is trying to demonstrate its influence in Central Asia with the 9 May Victory Day parade.

Source: ISW

Details: The report says Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use the Victory Day parade in Moscow to demonstrate Russia's further influence in Central Asia.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon will attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May.

The institute believes that the late announcement of the Central Asian leaders' participation is likely to indicate their reticence to directly and publicly support the war, despite the Kremlin's efforts to demonstrate its power.

The report adds that Alexander Lukashenko, self-proclaimed President of Belarus, and Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, have also reportedly arrived in Moscow for the Victory Day parade.

The Institute's review recalls that Russian forces launched another major missile and drone attack against Ukraine on the night of 7-8 May.

Analysts point out that senior Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian troops may be preparing for counter-offensive operations in May or June.

The report also notes that Russian-occupied Transnistria [an unrecognised breakaway state internationally recognised as a part of Moldova – ed.] has asked Russia to increase its peacekeeping contingent in the region, which is likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to destabilise Moldova.

However, as the ISW analysts state, Russia is still unlikely to deploy additional forces in Transnistria, given its existing military needs in Ukraine.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 8 May: 

• Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8.
• Senior Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to conduct counteroffensive operations in May or June.
• Russian-occupied Transnistria called on Russia to increase its peacekeepers in the region likely to support the Kremlin’s efforts to destabilize Moldova.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use the Victory Day parade to show Russia’s continued influence in Central Asia.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces have made marginal advances within Bakhmut as of May 8 amid reports of intensified Wagner Group forces offensive operations and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian authorities have reportedly escalated their campaign targeting ethnic minorities for contract service in the Russian military.
• Russian occupation authorities continued to forcibly evacuate civilians in rear areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

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