Russia unlikely to be capable of significant offensive in Ukraine this year
Russia is unlikely to be able to conduct a significant offensive in Ukraine this year due to a lack of ammunition and manpower, regardless of whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful.
Source: CNN, quoting Avril Haines, US Director of National Intelligence, reported by European Pravda
Quote from Haines: "In fact, if Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even modest offensive operations."
Details: Haines has said that Putin has likely scaled back his short-term ambitions in Ukraine in order to consider a victory "to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally".
Despite this assessment, Haines believes it is unlikely that Russia will agree to a pause this year unless political factors "change Putin's mindset".
Haines has also noted that Russian troops are preparing "new defensive positions" ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and that they "gained less territory in April than in any of the three previous months".
Background: US General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes that it will not be easy for Ukraine and Russia to achieve their political goals by military means.
Ben Wallace, Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom, said that the war will most likely continue into next year.
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