ISW explains why it will be difficult for Russia to replace Wagnerites in Bakhmut

Further effective counterattacks by the Ukrainian military on the flanks of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast may complicate Russia's operation to hand over the positions of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) to Russian regular army units, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe.

Source: ISW report

Details: The report stated that the Russian military bloggers said that Ukrainian forces had conducted successful counterattacks in the area of the settlements of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11 km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut).

ISW pointed out that one of the Russian military bloggers said that Ukrainian counterattacks in the area of Orikhovo-Vasylivka forced the Veteran PMC units to retreat up to a kilometre from the positions they had previously held in the area.

Military bloggers also say that Ukrainian forces have seized high ground along the E40 road (Bakhmut-Sloviansk) near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and that fighting in the area is ongoing.

They also stressed that Ukrainian troops advanced towards Klishchiivka and crossed the Siverskyi Donets Canal, likely intending to encircle the settlement and force Russian troops to retreat eastward.

At the same time, the report notes that geolocation footage posted on 24 and 25 May indicates that Russian forces may have regained limited positions west of Klishchiivka.

ISW's preliminary assessment is that it may be difficult for Russian forces to replace the Wagner PMC forces in Bakhmut, partly due to effective, limited and localised Ukrainian counterattacks.

Quote: "The decreased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and the reported ongoing relief in place operation are likely further providing Ukrainian forces in the area the initiative to launch a new phase of operations around the city if they so choose," the ISW noted.

Background:

• Yevgeny Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner Private Military Company, said on 25 May that he has begun to withdraw his mercenaries from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and is handing over their positions to the regular Russian army. This process, he said, would last until 1 June.
• Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said that Russia replaced Wagner PMC units with regular army units in the suburbs of Bakhmut.

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