Talks about occupiers' losses in Bakhmut become dominant in Russian information space – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the information about Russian losses in Bakhmut has become dominant in the aggressor country's information space.

Source: an ISW report 

Details: The ISW has stated that discussions around reports of Russian troops' losses in Bakhmut have flooded the pro-military information space and "drown out any positive effect of the capture of the city".

In an interview with Russian political strategist Konstantin Dolgov on 23 May, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the Group had lost 10,000 recruits from among the convicts and 10,000 regular Wagnerites who were killed during the battle of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin noted in particular that the Wagner PMC had recruited 50,000 convicts, 20% of whom (10,000) had been killed in the battle of Bakhmut.

Russian so-called military bloggers quickly picked up on the casualty reports, thus shifting the overall Russian debate from discussing the importance of the capture of Bakhmut to increasing controversy over the reported casualties, with claims that the losses could be significantly higher than those made public.

Quote: "Prigozhin’s claims about the Wagner’s losses in Bakhmut have similarly become a distinct point of tension in the information space and have come to define the predominant discourse about Russia’s entire campaign in Bakhmut. 

In shifting the conversation towards claimed Wagner losses, Prigozhin has largely succeeded in further depriving the Russian Defence Ministry of the opportunity to claim the information victory in Bakhmut and will likely continue to define and lead conversations on Bakhmut going forward but at the cost of highlighting the huge losses his own forces suffered for a negligible gain."

More details: According to experts, Prigozhin is likely to use his increased popularity after the capture of Bakhmut to intensify attacks on the Russian military establishment and elites.

It is noted that Prigozhin is also using the idea that the Wagner Group is responsible for the capture of Bakhmut to defend "an absurd level of influence on Russian military operations in Ukraine".

Prigozhin reiterated that the Wagner Group is the best army in the world and claimed that the conventional Russian army gives way to the Wagner PMC.

According to analysts, he is likely to be multiplying his attempts to establish himself as a Russian totalitarian figure who can achieve a military victory in Ukraine.

The ISW has also pointed out that the Kremlin continues to make efforts to represent Russia as a country with significant diplomatic partnerships.

Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 11th International Meeting of Senior Security Officials in Moscow on 24 May with his usual rhetoric, accusing the West of creating global instability and calling on countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America to form a multipolar world order.

Quote: "The nominal support of several post-Soviet states and the explicit support of a small constituent entity is likely far less than what the Kremlin is hoping to achieve with this wider diplomatic effort."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 24 May:

• Discussions regarding reported Russian losses in Bakhmut have saturated the pro-war information space and are drowning out any remaining positive informational effect resulting from the city’s capture.
• Prigozhin is likely using his heightened profile following the capture of Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites. Prigozhin is also using the perception that Wagner is responsible for the capture of Bakhmut to advocate for a preposterous level of influence over the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to portray Russia as having significant diplomatic partnerships.
• Russian sources continued to respond to the limited all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) raid into Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupiansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the outskirts of Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine with FAB-500 aerial bombs.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on May 24 that more than 120,000 Russian personnel have undergone training since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• The Russian Federation Council approved a law on holding elections in territories under martial law on.

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