Situation in Bakhmut is vulnerable for Russia

The Russian Federation exaggerates the significance of the capture of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast amid the vulnerability of the military situation for Russian forces in the city, according to a report by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Source: ISW report

Quote: "The hyperfocus on claiming victory in Bakhmut distracts from the precarious Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, underscoring the weight of Wagner Group financier Prigozhin’s influence in the information space. 

The Russian military situation in Bakhmut is particularly vulnerable as the Russian offensive effort in the area has likely culminated, granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch further counterattacks on Bakhmut’s already-weakened flanks. 

Wagner’s withdrawal in contact will also likely result in the Russian Defence Ministry manning defensive lines with poorly trained and provisioned conventional units similar to those that retreated from their positions while defending against Ukrainian counterattacks earlier in May."

Details: However, US analysts have noted that the Russian information space largely ignores these vulnerabilities.

The ISW has stressed that Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin had previously complained that Russia's focus on capturing Bakhmut was a "strategic failure" that led to an "unnecessary and Pyrrhic victory". Girkin criticised Prigozhin, Shoygu [Russian Defence Minister – ed.] and Gerasimov [Head of Russian General Staff] for dragging out the attempts to take Bakhmut and distracting from preparations to defend against a future counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces.

Background: The exhausted Wagner forces are unlikely to be able to continue offensive operations beyond Bakhmut, according to ISW analysts. 

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