Wagnerites unlikely to be able to continue fighting outside Bakhmut

Wagner Private Military Company is holding the western administrative borders of Bakhmut while Ukrainian forces continue to focus on counterattacks on the outskirts of the city. Wagnerites, exhausted by the fighting, are unlikely to be able to continue offensive operations outside Bakhmut, as estimated by the analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Source: ISW report

Details: The ISW has stressed that, according to the Ukrainian military, they control a small area of the southwestern part of Bakhmut around the T0504 highway.

The ISW considers the Ukrainian forces' statement to be a silent admission that Russian forces control the rest of the western and northwestern parts of Bakhmut, if not all of Bakhmut.

Quote: "These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed Wagner forces raising Russian and Wagner flags over a residential building in western Bakhmut.

The Wagner Group’s likely capture of the last remaining small area of western Bakhmut does not impact ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks north or south of Bakhmut, nor does it impact Ukrainian control over the ground lines of communications (GLOCs) around Bakhmut that exhausted Wagner forces would need to reach in order to conduct further offensive operations.

Russian forces will likely need additional reinforcements to hold the city of Bakhmut and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions. ISW has observed artillery units of the 132nd Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (which was previously observed in the Avdiivka area) operating on the Bakhmut front."

More details: The ISW has previously predicted that Wagner's offensive operations are likely to culminate after months of exhausting urban fighting and that it is unlikely that Wagner will continue fighting outside Bakhmut in its current depleted state.

Quote: "Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular forces took responsibility for Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight. Wagner forces began showing signs that they would be unable to pursue offensive operations beyond the city of Bakhmut from at least late December 2022.

Russian regular forces situated on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks are also unlikely to push west towards Kostiantynivka or north towards Sloviansk amid Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area any time soon. 

Russian conventional forces will be even more unlikely to pursue offensive operations if Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin delivers on his stated intent to withdraw Wagner personnel from the city of Bakhmut on May 25.

It is currently unclear if Prigozhin will actually withdraw his forces from Bakhmut, but some milbloggers are speculating that Prigozhin will commit Wagner to a different ‘critical’ frontline at the end of the month. Russian forces faced a similar culmination following highly attritional infantry attacks in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in June–July 2022."

Background:

• In Japan, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clarified his words about Bakhmut, stressing that as of 21 May, the city had not been completely captured by the Russians. 
• Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said that Ukrainian defenders have taken Bakhmut into a semi-encirclement area, which allows them to kill the occupiers.

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