Statements by Russia and Prigozhin about capture of Bakhmut have no strategic significance

The statement by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Private Military Company, about the mercenaries' withdrawal from Bakhmut may be an attempt to mislead Ukrainian troops. The occupiers' words about the capture of the city are of no strategic importance, as they will not allow the exhausted Russian forces to create a platform for further offensive operations.

Source: a report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Quote: "Prigozhin’s claimed victory over the remaining areas in Bakhmut is purely symbolic even if true.

The last few urban blocks of eastern Bakhmut that Prigozhin claimed that Wagner Group forces captured are not tactically or operationally significant. 

Their capture does not grant Russian forces operationally significant terrain to continue conducting offensive operations or any particularly strong position from which to defend against possible Ukrainian counterattacks."

Details: Yevgeny Prigozhin declared a "victory" in Bakhmut on 20 May and announced his intention to withdraw from the city on 25 May.

The ISW report notes that Prigozhin's words about capturing the remaining neighbourhoods of Bakhmut are not strategically important, as they will not allow the exhausted Wagnerites or regular Russian troops to create a full-fledged platform for further offensive operations.

The ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks to the north, west and southwest of Bakhmut will make it difficult for Russian forces to advance beyond Bakhmut in the short term.

Prigozhin's announcement of withdrawal, whether or not the Wagner PMC leaves the city, indicates that Prigozhin does not intend to continue his offensive to advance directly to the west of Bakhmut, the report says.

It is noted that Wagnerites are unlikely to be able to conduct a controlled withdrawal from Bakhmut successfully.

Wagnerites are also unlikely to be able to create an efficient defence or consolidate recent gains in Bakhmut sufficient to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks until 25 May, even if Prigozhin's statement about Wagner PMC's withdrawal is true.

Ukrainian troops are still in the settlements of  Khromove and Ivanivske, fighting Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.

Prigozhin has actually stated that his PMC forces will have an operational pause, resting and recuperating in field training camps in unspecified areas, likely far from the contact line.

Ukrainian officials have reported that, as of 20 May, Ukrainian forces were still fighting in a small area in the southwest of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces continue to press the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.

In addition, Ukrainian artillery is still able to hit Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.

The report also notes that "withdrawal of troops in contact with the enemy is an extremely difficult task" that the Wagner Group forces are unlikely to be able to accomplish within the five-day timeframe proposed by Prigozhin.

Carrying out on-site assistance while in contact with the Ukrainian army is also an extremely difficult manoeuvre that Russian troops will likely find difficult to carry out, even if the Russian Defence Ministry agrees to do so.

The Wagner PMC units demonstrated poor coordination with Russian regular troops, other irregulars subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defence, and the Russian military command.

It is unlikely that the Russian military command will be able to assemble sufficient forces to replace Wagnerites in Bakhmut and hold its flanks within the window announced by Prigozhin without redeploying Russian troops from other areas.

The ISW believes that Prigozhin's statement about his intention to withdraw may be a blatant attempt to mislead Ukrainian troops into launching a counterattack through Bakhmut.

Russian regular troops will likely still have to move additional forces to the Bakhmut area, even if the Wagner mercenaries remain in Bakhmut.

Background: 

• The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine denied the capture of Bakhmut: despite the "critical situation" in the city, Ukrainian soldiers control some facilities.
• Serhii Cherevatyi, the spokesman for the Eastern group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has explained the statement by Yevgeny Prigozhin regarding the complete capture of Bakhmut and said that Prigozhin intended to withdraw its mercenaries from the ruined city, which may be surrounded by Ukrainian defenders, as soon as possible.

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