Russia tries to strengthen offensive operations in Bakhmut area – ISW
Russia has decided to strengthen its tactical offensive operations in the Bakhmut area, even though Ukraine has focused on local counterattacks there, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe.
Source: ISW
Details: The Institute reports that Denis Pushilin, the so-called head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), said on 16 May that Russian troops had "strengthened their forces in the Bakhmut area to stabilise the situation". In addition, analysts noted, a well-known Russian military blogger reported that four unidentified Russian battalions had been deployed on the flanks around Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.
The ISW noted that Russian reports on reinforcement are consistent with the Ukrainian statement on 15 May: Hanna Maliar, Deputy Defence Minister of Ukraine, said that Russian troops are "deploying their airborne assault units", probably transferred from other parts of the front, to protect the flanks of Bakhmut.
Quote: "The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupiansk line.
The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid Wagner Group’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture Bakhmut. These concerns were likely more pronounced in recent days that saw limited Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut and may have prompted further Russian concentration on the tactical offensive effort in the area.
The reinforcements are also likely meant to enhance Wagner’s ability to capture the remainder of Bakhmut rapidly and present a Russian tactical victory before possible setbacks during a Ukrainian counteroffensive operation."
More details: According to ISW estimates, the Russian military command probably decided to change priorities in recent weeks to prepare for possible Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
However, the Institute stressed that the constant concentration of forces on Bakhmut may indicate that immediate tactical problems may undermine the wider efforts of the Russians.
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