Prigozhin not threatened with removal as long as Wagner forces on contact line – ISW

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the efforts of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group private military company (PMC), to cooperate with Ukrainian intelligence, as reported by the Washington Post, were more likely an element of his enmity with the Russian Defence Ministry than an attack on President Vladimir Putin.

Source: ISW

Details: ISW recalled that according to its assessment made on 12 March, Prigozhin is competing with the Russian Defence Ministry for Putin's favour, although he could inadvertently concern the Russian president with his military and political ambitions.

The ISW believes that Prigozhin's potential contacts with Ukraine's Defence Intelligence are unlikely to prompt the Kremlin to remove him in the near future.

Quote: "Prigozhin’s reported outreach to Ukrainian intelligence would likely have been part of an effort to win Putin’s favour, in fact, by facilitating a rapid Wagner victory in Bakhmut while harming Russian conventional forces behind the scenes.

Prigozhin recently retracted his 9 May comments that indirectly mocked Putin, further indicating that Prigozhin is aware of his dependance on Putin and does not mean to antagonise him.

The allegations [regarding contacts with Ukrainian intelligence – ed.] are unlikely to cause the Kremlin to remove Prigozhin in the near term but can contribute to efforts to discredit Prigozhin. The Kremlin likely suspects or is aware of Prigozhin’s reported communications with Ukrainian intelligence and likely was not blindsided by The Washington Post report or the leaked US intelligence documents."

More details: The ISW recalled that Russian officials had threatened Prigozhin with treason if he did not stop blackmailing the Defence Ministry with demands to give Wagner more ammunition, threatening to withdraw troops from Bakhmut.

The ISW also stressed that unnamed sources in the Kremlin reported that the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation is preparing an information operation to publicly discredit Prigozhin, but noted that the Kremlin is unlikely to threaten Prigozhin while the Wagner forces are on the contact lines.

"Prigozhin commands the Wagner forces in Donbas, and his removal would disrupt the Russian lines in Bakhmut – a risk that Putin is unlikely to take. The Kremlin is also unable easily to publicly remove and replace Prigozhin as the de facto head of Wagner because Wagner is an independent company and Prigozhin holds no official position in the Russian government. Removing Prigozhin from his control of Wagner would ironically require asserting direct Kremlin control of the mercenary group from which Putin has been at pains to maintain formal distance," the ISW concluded.

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