ISW explains why Russia is increasingly conducting air attacks on Ukraine

The increasingly regular series of strikes by Russian drones and missiles are likely part of a new Russian air campaign aimed at weakening Ukraine's ability to conduct counteroffensive operations in the near term, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War.

Source: ISW report

Details: The institute estimated that since April 19, Russian troops have conducted at least 10 series of strikes throughout Ukraine, especially in the rear areas.

"In these recent series of strikes, Russian forces used significantly fewer precision-guided missiles compared to their failed campaign against Ukraine's critical infrastructure from fall 2022 to winter 2023," the experts noted.

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, Russian forces likely spent a significant portion of their precision-guided missiles during the previous air attack, and therefore are using far fewer of these missiles in the latest attack to preserve their limited stockpile. Instead, analysts said, Russian forces have relied on launching large numbers of Shaheds to overcome Ukrainian air defence, although Ukrainian forces have been more effective in destroying Russian precision-guided systems than during the previous Russian air campaign.

"The new Russian air campaign appears to be focused on Kyiv and suspected Ukrainian military industrial and logistics facilities in the deep rear. The more limited air campaign so far has been more regular than the previous broader Russian campaign against critical infrastructure," the analysts said in their report.

ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may be trying to conduct a near-daily series of strikes to show that they are successfully deterring potential future Ukrainian counteroffensives.

"The intended targets and limited nature of this campaign indicate that Russian forces are directly concerned about Ukraine's current ability to launch counter offensive operations, although the reduced effectiveness of these strikes likely does not significantly limit Ukrainian capabilities in the overall scheme of things," the institute said.

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