Ukraine's Defence Forces achieve success near Bakhmut with targeted counterattacks – ISW

Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported on the success of the Ukraine’s Defence Forces near Bakhmut thanks to localised counterattacks.

Source: ISW

Деталі: According to the ISW, as of 12 May, Ukrainian forces had achieved success northwest of Bakhmut in localised counterattacks.

The report noted that several Russian sources have warned that Ukrainian forces may attempt to surround Wagner PMC within Bakhmut.

At the same time, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, emphasised that Ukrainian troops are approaching Berkhivka and stated that Ukraine now occupies positions within 500 metres of the northwestern suburbs of Bakhmut.

The so-called military bloggers of the Russian Federation also reported that Ukrainian troops are counterattacking towards Khromove (3 km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6 km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (6 km southwest of Bakhmut).

One of them claimed that the situation southwest of Bakhmut near Maiorsk has stabilised after Ukrainian attacks on the positions of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps.

The Russian Defence Ministry rejected the statements by other sources in the Russian Federation about the advance of Ukrainian troops and stated that units of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade [self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic – ed.] and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade [14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet – ed.] repelled all attacks in the area of Berkhivka, "taking into account the favourable conditions of the Berkhivka Reservoir".

So-called Russian military bloggers and other prominent figures in the pro-military media space continue to react to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and concern.

Many of these military bloggers claimed that the Ukrainian actions around Bakhmut marked the official beginning of the expected spring counteroffensive, and speculated about where the main efforts of the Ukraine’s Defence Forces would be concentrated.

Several prominent Russian figures, however, have called for caution and restraint in responding to the counteroffensive, suggesting that some bloggers advocate applying certain lessons they learned from the collapse of the information space during Ukraine's successful Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives.

Ukrainian and American officials have said that Ukrainian forces have not yet launched the planned counteroffensive.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 12 May:

• Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localised counterattacks as of 12 May.
• Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety.
• Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive.
• Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on 11 May.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed "Club of Angry Patriots" held a press conference on 12 May to discuss its discontent with the current Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine.
• U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, contradicting its proclaimed neutral stance on the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Defence Ministry attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
• Russian forces continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to recruit convicts and establish volunteer battalions as a part of crypto-mobilisation efforts.
• Senior Russian officials are claiming that they are taking active measures to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukraine.

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