Putin creates conditions for further repression in occupied territories
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin calls the fight against the Russians "terrorism" and calls for the strengthening of so-called "law enforcement operations" to create conditions for further repressions in the occupied territories.
Source: ISW report
Details: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from Bakhmut to avoid encirclement if necessary, but so far, he sees no need to do so.
During a press conference in Poland, Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian troops are facing a very difficult situation in Bakhmut and that Kyiv will make "appropriate decisions" if Ukrainian troops are encircled by Russian troops.
Zelenskyy's statement coincides with other recent statements by Ukrainian officials that the Ukrainian military command will order a withdrawal from Bakhmut when and if it deems a withdrawal to be the most strategically appropriate option.
ISW analysts note that they will be able to assess the importance of the Bakhmut defence and its effectiveness in deterring Russian forces, as well as the extent of Ukrainian losses, when they observe the Ukrainian army's spring counteroffensive.
The report also states that Putin, during a meeting with Russia's National Security Council on 5 April, called Russia's efforts to strengthen control over Ukraine's occupied territories "a matter of internal security and the rule of law".
He called for the continued economic, legal and social integration of the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts into the Russian Federation and emphasised the importance of Russia's "restoration" efforts in the occupied territories to facilitate the integration process.
Putin also accused Ukraine of threatening the civilian population in the occupied territories and emphasised the recent "terrorist attacks" against occupation officials and law enforcement agencies, referring to attacks by Ukrainian partisans against the occupiers.
The Russian dictator emphasised the need to strengthen the so-called "law enforcement operations" to protect people from such attacks and called for more active participation of local Ukrainian citizens in the "law enforcement processes", openly encouraging collaborators and informants in the occupied territories.
The report concludes that Putin has notably invoked the concept of "terrorism" and threats to Russian domestic security to justify domestic repressions and is likely setting conditions for further repressions and law enforcement crackdowns in occupied territories, using similar framing.
The president of the aggressor country tried to portray Russia as a respected world power, while Chinese officials downplayed close relations with Russia.
ISW Key Takeaways for 5 April
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Bakhmut to avoid encirclement if necessary, but do not yet assess the need to do so.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin framed Russia’s efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories of Ukraine as a matter of internal security and rule of law during a meeting with the Russian National Security Council.
- Putin also attempted to portray Russia as a respected world power against the backdrop of Chinese officials downplaying close relations with Russia.
- Russian dictator dismissed Colonel-General Nikolai Grechushkin from his post as Deputy Head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on April 5.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Invaders likely made gains in and around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
- Russian businessmen may be assuming a larger role in supporting the Russian Defence Ministry’s efforts to form irregular volunteer formations.
- Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova continues to deny international allegations that Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.
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