Kremlin resorts to nuclear blackmail again – ISW

The ISW has stated that the Kremlin continues to attempt to use nuclear threats to deter the provision of Western military aid to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive.

Source: ISW report

Details: ISW analysts suggest that the Kremlin will likely try to force Belarus to integrate into the Union State further when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meet in Moscow on 5 and 6 April. 

The report recalls that the Kremlin announced on 4 April that Putin and Lukashenko would meet for private bilateral talks on 5 April and attend a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in Moscow on 6 April.

The Kremlin continues to try to use nuclear threats to deter Western military assistance to Ukraine ahead of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu justified Russia's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, accusing NATO of intensifying combat training and intelligence activities near the Russian and Belarusian borders, and accused the West of escalating the war in Ukraine by providing additional military aid to Ukraine on 4 April.

In addition, the Kremlin continues to make efforts to falsely assure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences.

ISW Key Takeaways for 4 April

• The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meet in Moscow on 5 and 6 April.
  
  
• The Kremlin continues to attempt to employ nuclear threats to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive.
  
  
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demonstrative response to the assassination of Russian milblogger Maxim Fomin indicates that Prigozhin likely believes that the attack was in part directed at himself.
  
  
• The Kremlin continues to attempt to falsely reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences.
  
  
• The Kremlin is likely trying to shift more responsibility for growing Russian industry onto regional bodies to insulate itself from possible criticism about Russia’s deteriorating economic situation.
  
  
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  
  
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk city frontline.
  
  
• Russian forces continue to prepare for a rumoured pending Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern direction.
  
  
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russia’s ongoing spring conscription cycle is going according to plan, progressing as quickly as planned, and has completed initial military registration.
  
  
• Russian occupation officials denied Ukrainian reports that Russian occupation authorities are preparing evacuation plans from occupied regions of Ukraine.
  
  
• Belarusian state media claimed that the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) reportedly arrested two men under suspicion of attempted terrorist attacks in Grodno.

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