Wagner Group leader fears counterattacks by Ukrainian Armed Forces in Bakhmut
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that the leader of the Wagner Private Military Company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, fears counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly in Bakhmut, and is calling on the Kremlin to strengthen defence in eastern Ukraine.
Source: ISW report
Details: Analysts note that Prigozhin continued his attempts to convince the Kremlin to switch to defence in eastern Ukraine.
He has said that a Ukrainian counteroffensive could begin by 15 May, but that the Russian military is in no hurry to prepare to repel the attacks.
In addition, Prigozhin threatened to withdraw the group's forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command did not provide more ammunition to the Wagner mercenaries.
The report reads: "Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw from Bakhmut may also indicate that Prigozhin fears that the Russian positions in Bakhmut’s rear are vulnerable to counterattacks."
In an interview with a Kremlin-linked so-called military blogger, Prigozhin said that Wagner mercenaries would continue to fight in Bakhmut, but would be forced to "retreat in an organised manner or stay and die" if the situation did not improve right away.
Prigozhin also mentioned the Deputy Commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, who allegedly planned together with him to delay the advance of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut.
"Prigozhin’s mention of Surovikin is likely an attempt to publicly affiliate with Surovikin as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favour is shifting away from Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s network," the report states.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 29 April:
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition to Wagner mercenaries.
- Prigozhin also continued his efforts to convince the Kremlin to go over to the defensive in eastern Ukraine.
- Prigozhin offered the position of First Deputy Commander of Wagner forces, possibly sarcastically, to former Russian Deputy Defense Minister for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev who was reportedly dismissed from his position on 27 April.
- Ukrainian forces attacked an oil storage facility in Sevastopol reportedly with a wave of Mugin-5 UAVs on 29 April.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces made limited gains in Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted a sea-based missile strike against the command post of the Ukrainian Kherson Group of Forces. Ukrainian officials have so far not confirmed this claim.
- The Russian MoD continues to pursue measures to expedite the conscription process and increase the difficulty of evading summonses.
- Russian occupation authorities and border area officials have expanded security measures and filtration efforts likely in anticipation of increased Ukrainian partisan activity in support of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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