ISW says Kremlin avoids overt repression as it fears for stability of Putin's regime

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that the Kremlin is avoiding overtly repressive measures because it fears for the stability of Russian dictator Putin's regime.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW said in its report that Russian ultranationalists are continuing to advocate a return to Stalinist repression measures by the Kremlin.

Such sentiments suggest that extreme nationalists are expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase repression and fully commit to waging war.

However, the report said, the Kremlin continues to avoid openly repressive measures, likely because of fears for the stability of Putin’s regime.

That is why the Russian government has withdrawn a bill from the Russian State Duma that would have increased taxes from 13 to 30 percent for Russians who have fled the country.

However "Russian ultranationalists have repeatedly called on the Kremlin to nationalise property belonging to Russians who had "betrayed" the country by fleeing, but the Kremlin appears to remain hesitant to introduce such unpopular measures".

The ISW also emphasised that senior US and EU officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin would continue to be unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful counteroffensive by Ukraine.

One more topic presented in the report was the fact that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has denied ISW’s statement on 22 April that relations between the Wagner Group and with the Russian military command had improved in the run-up to the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

The analysts pointed out that the ISW had previously estimated that the Russian military command may have partially re-established its strained relations with Prigozhin to order to convive Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt offensive operations prior to the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.

ISW noted that Prigozhin's constant statements about his distaste for the Russian military leadership was in contradiction to Prigozhin's change in rhetoric, as well as the sudden arrival of artillery ammunition after months of a reported shell famine in Bakhmut.

ISW analysts noted that taken in combination, these factors indicate that Prigozhin, despite his claimed independence and pride, needs to retain the favour and support of both the Kremlin and the Russian Defence Ministry to continue with his operations.

To quote ISW’s key takeaways on 25 April:

• Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• A Ukrainian military official claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces are achieving "impressive results" in counter-battery combat against Russian forces on the Russian-occupied eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied ISW’s April 22 assessment about limited improvements in Wagner’s relations with the Russian military command ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Russian ultranationalists continue to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures.
• The Kremlin continues to avoid adopting overtly repressive measures likely out of concern for the stability of Putin’s regime.
• Russian civil rights groups OVD-Info, Memorial, and Rus Sidyashchaya (Russia Behind Bars) issued a legal challenge to the Russian censorship law against discrediting the Russian military on April 25.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kremmina line.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
• Russian milbloggers continued to issue vehement denials that Ukrainian forces established sustained positions on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to financially incentivize Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine, offering them compensation equivalent to that of Russian volunteers.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans detonated a Russian military checkpoint near Oleshky.

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