Rumours about new Russian offensive on Kyiv were disinformation from Russian General Staff

According to a secret document of the US Department of Defence, which appeared on the social media as a result of a large-scale leak, the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia reported in February 2023 about "successful efforts at operational camouflage" designed to convince Ukrainian intelligence of the possibility of a new offensive from the territory of Belarus.

Source: Russian service Radio Svoboda

Details: It is noted that the document states that the operation  "Operational Masking" took place from 3 to 10 February 2023.

The heads of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, according to the Pentagon, said that they "successfully convinced the Ukrainian intelligence services of the possibility of a joint Russian-Belarusian offensive from Belarusian territory".

As evidence of the success of the operation, the representative of the General Staff cited the report of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation on the reaction of Ukraine to the announcement of the joint aerial-tactical training of the Aerial Force units of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus, which began on 16 January, about the transfer of Iskander-M operational-tactical complexes from Russia to Belarus, as well as about shifting the focus of Russian-Belarusian exercises from "defensive" to "offensive".

The Armed Forces of Ukraine also allegedly admitted that the training in Belarus of those mobilised for the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division of the Armed Forces of Russia and the training of units of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Federation is an attempt by Russia to secretly form a combat-ready unit for the offensive in the Volyn front; to create interferences in the delivery of Western military aid to Kyiv.

Indeed, on 20 March 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported "a great threat of Belarusian attack on Volyn".

According to the document of the US Department of Defence, the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Army recommended continuing the operation to disinformation the Ukrainian command about the likelihood of an attack from the territory of Belarus, dividing it into two phases.

The first phase was to last until 6 March, the second from 6 to 11 March. Plans for both phases were supposed to be sent to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus for approval.

On 21 February 2023, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that he "does not believe" in a new attack on Ukraine from Belarus, saying that the purpose of joint Russian-Belarusian exercises is to "scare Ukraine".

According to Reznikov and other Ukrainian officials, there were not enough Russian troops in Belarus at that time for a new offensive: from 9,000 to 11,000 people.

Background: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 began in particular with the advance of Russian troops from Belarus.

After fierce battles near Kyiv and the occupation of settlements in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts, the Russian army was forced to retreat from these territories. On 2 April, the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the complete return of Kyiv Oblast under its control.

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