ISW explains why Prigozhin called on Kremlin to end "Special Military Operation"

Yevgeny Prigozhin's calls for the Kremlin to end the so-called "Special Military Operation" [the term war is prohibited in Russia – ed.] and focus on consolidating Russian forces in the occupied territories may indicate that the founder of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) has found allies in the Russian Ministry of Defence who support a temporary freeze on the war in Ukraine.

Source: Report from the Institute for the Study of War

Details: ISW analysts note that in early April, Prigozhin publicly resumed cooperation with the Russian Defence Ministry and appears to have regained some of the privileges granted by the Kremlin after months of feuding with the Russian military command.

The institute believes that Prigozhin's cooperation with the Russian Defence Ministry indicates that the head of Wagner has probably reached an agreement with the Russian military command, offering Putin a proposal for a temporary ceasefire. In this way, the report says, Prigozhin wants to regain the ability to build up his forces and expand his political prospects ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia.

The institute noted that Prigozhin has also previously criticised Putin's maximalist goals for the war in Ukraine and made pessimistic predictions about how long it would take Russia to capture Donbas. These statements, ISW suggested, are likely part of the ceasefire narrative.

The institute's analysts also noted that the club of "Angry Patriots," one of whose leaders is Igor Girkin, recently accused Prigozhin of supporting efforts to freeze the war in Ukraine.

"This accusation may also indicate that Prigozhin has found a patron – possibly affiliated with the Russian MoD – who supports the temporary freeze of the war in Ukraine for political reasons," the report states.

"A temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and protraction of the war will only benefit Russia by allowing it to reconstitute its forces and wear down Western support for Ukraine. Russia will use occupied territories in Ukraine as a springboard for future offensive operations after it restores its combat capabilities," summed up ISW. 

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