Russia fails to achieve its goals by end of March – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Source: ISW report from 1 April 2023

Details: The ISW reported that "Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31".

The ISW added that the "Russian milbloggers fretted that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect" between 16 April and 9 May.

Milbloggers were disappointed that there have been no decisive battles throughout the winter and "observed that Russia will not be capable of continuing a large-scale offensive operation if it is unable to secure Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks."

The ISW had long considered the Russian winter offensive unlikely to be successful, given the "persistent failures of the Russian command to comprehend the time and space relationships involved in such a campaign."

The Institute also deemed that Russia would lack the combat power for "more than one major offensive operation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts", and considered that "ongoing recruitment campaigns in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories may indicate that Russia is preparing for reserve shortages."

Growing Russian speculation about changes in Russian military command likely indicates, according to the Institute’s report, that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive. 

Key ISW Takeaways as of 1 April:

• Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources note the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by 31 March have not been achieved.
• Growing Russian speculation indicates Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command after the failed winter offensive.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces made no confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
• Russian forces continued to build defences in occupied southern Ukraine.
• Russia began its semi-annual conscription on 1 April, the largest call-up since 2016.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under rest-and-rehabilitation schemes.
• Some Russian nationalist figures criticised Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for failing to pursue efforts on behalf of a Union State between Russia and Belarus since the mid-1990s.

Background: UK Defence Intelligence reported that the Russian military command's plans to expand the territories under its control in Donbas during the winter offensive failed.

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