ISW names goals of Putin's trips to occupied territories

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analysed Putin's trip to the occupied territories of Luhansk and Kherson oblasts and indicated that he had several goals.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive during his visit to occupied Kherson and Luhansk oblasts.

The Kremlin announced on 18 April that Putin visited the headquarters of the Russian Dnepr Group of Forces in Kherson Oblast and the Vostok National Guard headquarters in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

ISW noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Avdiivka frontline on 18 April, and it is possible the Kremlin deliberately released footage of Putin’s visit to overshadow Zelenskyy’s visit in the information space.

ISW suggested that Putin’s visit likely also intended to publicly identify potential scapegoats ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.

ISW also noted that Putin, Kremlin sources, and milbloggers have been increasingly discussing the prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and it is likely that the Kremlin is preparing the domestic information space for either military failures or the defeat of the counteroffensive threat.

In addition, Putin’s demonstrative meetings with the leaders of his army likely confirm another change in military command and possibly within the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Putin may be attempting to balance Wagner’s influence by reappointing Colonel-General Alexander Lapin to command the Luhansk sector of the frontline.

ISW emphasised that select members of the "Club of Angry Patriots" [a Russian hardline nationalist social movement that criticises the current Russian government for half-measures and inability to win the war against Ukraine – ed.] are advocating for a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or pursues peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West. 

ISW Key Takeaways on 18 April:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive during his visit to occupied Kherson and Luhansk oblasts.
• Select members of the "Club of Angry Patriots" are advocating for a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or pursue peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met to discuss on strategic partnership and military cooperation in Moscow on April 18.
• The Russian State Duma approved a series of amendments to the Russian Criminal Code on April 18 aimed at encouraging domestic self-censorship and repressing the Russian public.
• Russian authorities detained Russian public relations specialist Yaroslav Shirshikov, an associate of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, in Yekaterinburg on April 18.
• The Russian Immortal Regiment Central Headquarters announced the cancelation of the annual Immortal Regiment Victory Day march, likely in an effort to reduce public discussion of war dead.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue defensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to integrate proxy formations with conventional Russian forces.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian civilians to Russia under healthcare and rehabilitation schemes.
• Belarus may begin economically supporting Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast with a patronage system.

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