ISW explains how the Kremlin wants to use the arrest of American journalist

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the Kremlin will try to use the arrest of The Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich to extract concessions from the United States.

Source: ISW

Details: The Institute's report states that Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly personally approved Gershkovich’s arrest.

According to military analysts, Putin’s reported personal involvement in the first arrest of a US journalist since the Cold War may indicate that the Kremlin viewed the arrest as a calculated escalation that it will attempt to use as leverage for extracting concessions from the United States.

The report also points out that Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov, the deputy chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that Russia could again become a serious threat to Ukraine in the long term, despite the fact that it is currently facing serious mobilisation problems.

He noted that Ukraine and its allies should not underestimate Russia's ability to create armed forces in the long term to wage a long-term war of attrition.

As analysts note, the Kremlin has not yet carried out the necessary reorganisation for a large-scale deployment of the Russian armed forces.

Therefore, Russia's decentralised mobilisation efforts are aimed at redistributing the resource burden between law enforcement agencies and units of the state system.

In this regard, the Kremlin is reportedly billing the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom for its volunteer recruitment efforts in occupied Donetsk Oblast, offering volunteers 400,000 roubles (approximately $4,900) of salary per month.

The institute notes that the resources of various Russian groups are finite. And the Kremlin's efforts to replenish them will exhaust themselves without redistribution reform.

Experts add that the decision of the Russian authorities "to continue relying on financial incentivizing voluntary recruits with both one-time payments and accrued lifetime benefits will create large long-term structural costs and will not be sustainable indefinitely."

Key takeaways from ISW for 13 April:

• A senior Ukrainian official warned that Russia can reconstitute itself as a serious threat to Ukraine in the long run despite facing severe force generation problems at this time.
• Ukrainian assessments confirm ISW’s longstanding assessment that Russia cannot conduct multiple offensive operations simultaneously at this time.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly personally approved the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich.
• The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) on April 13 identified the individuals allegedly responsible for assassinating milblogger Maxim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky).
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continue to reinforce and strengthen their positions in southern Ukraine in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters continue to feud with St. Petersburg authorities and advertising companies allegedly obstructing Wagner Group recruitment efforts.
• Wagner Group are reportedly training Ukrainian children to use weapons as part of the Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement (Yunarmiya) in occupied Ukraine.

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