Ukraine unhappy about US pessimistic assessment of counteroffensive success

Ukraine is unhappy about the leaked US assessment of its counteroffensive, which states that Ukraine will manage to make "modest territorial achievements." Ukrainian officials believe that the US is once again underestimating the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

Source: Politico

Details: In particular, Ukrainian officials have told reporters that they were not happy about the leaked "top secret" February assessment, which suggests that Ukraine will make only "modest territorial gains" from the planned counteroffensive.

The Washington Post, which reported on the document on Monday (10 April - ed.), said it was part of a leak of classified US intelligence data about the war in Ukraine, as well as China, Israel and other hot spots around the world.

Kyiv says that the document shows that the US is once again underestimating the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

A person in contact with senior officials in Kyiv said that "the same people who said that Kyiv would fall in three days are now leaking harmful and equally meaningless information on the eve of an offensive critical to the entire free world."

Journalists also quote a representative of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

Quote from the representative of the Ministry of Defence: "There are people who continue to doubt Ukraine's military chances in a counteroffensive, but we have proved that they are all wrong."

He said that forecasts about Ukraine’s chances "do not correspond to reality": "this gives us grounds for suspicion about how seriously the US supports Ukraine's goals of completely ousting Russia from the country."

A source in the Ukrainian government said that such sentiments are widespread in the Cabinet of ministers.

All media sources spoke anonymously so they could talk in detail about sensitive internal discussions in Ukraine.

Politico believes that these comments make it clear that the US and Ukraine are not as in sync as both countries claim after 14 months of war.

Quote: "It may also indicate a decline in trust between Washington and Kyiv ahead of a crucial few months of fighting that could dictate the course of the war with Russia.

Since Russia controls 20 percent of Ukraine's territory, it is hoped that a counteroffensive, even with reduced supplies, will force Moscow's troops and mercenaries to leave the country they invaded."

Previously:

• US intelligence believes that Ukraine's problems with building up troops, ammunition and equipment may lead to the fact that its military will "significantly lag behind" Kyiv’s original goals regarding the expected counteroffensive.
• Oleksii Reznikov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has said that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is planning to conduct a counter-offensive on several fronts, but it all depends on the weather conditions. The Ukrainian military is also waiting for the "right moment", and Reznikov believes it will happen in April or May.
• Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said that a set of classified Pentagon documents that was allegedly leaked on the Internet is a mixture of true and false information. 
• Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stressed that the narrative of a counteroffensive as a decisive battle is dangerous for Ukraine, because if it fails, it will contribute to position of those in the West pushing Ukraine towards a compromise with Russia.  He said that if the spring counteroffensive is perceived as decisive, but does not lead to "100% liberation of Ukrainian territory," then "some could say that this was the last decisive battle, and now we need to think about an alternative scenario." 
• Ukraine has already changed some of its military plans due to the leak of classified US documents and this is delaying its counteroffensive, the media reported.
• Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, has urged that people wait before drawing any hasty conclusions about the leak of secret Pentagon documents, in particular those related to Ukraine.

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