Washington Post says Ukraine's counteroffensive delayed by slow arms deliveries and US document leaks

The Washington Post has reported that the Ukrainian counteroffensive, expected to launch this spring, has been delayed by poor weather conditions, slow supplies of weapons, equipment and ammunition from the West, and the Pentagon documents leak, which revealed the weak spots in Ukraine’s air defence.

Source: The Washington Post

Quote: "The expected spring offensive has been framed as Ukraine’s make-or-break opportunity this year to recapture territory held by Russian forces, which totals about one-fifth of the country.

But the operation has been delayed by weather, slow equipment deliveries and ammunition scarcities, fueling fears of a stalemate.

Further complicating the planned counterattack is the leak of dozens of U.S. military and intelligence documents, including many details about the condition of Ukraine’s military and its capabilities, including weaknesses in air defences that could force commanders to alter their plans."

Details: Many Ukrainians fear that if Ukraine fails to recapture "significant territory" that has been taken by Russia, they will be forced to negotiate with Russia from an unfavourable position.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces are carrying out operations to test Russian defences, despite the lack of ammunition and the reliance on the slow deliveries of Western military aid.

A Ukrainian corporal in Donetsk Oblast, just over a kilometre away from Russian positions, told the WP journalists that he has been using commercial drones to identify and spy on the Russian forces, detect weaknesses in their defences and plan attacks to destroy Russian defence fortifications.

He said that small-scale operations are helping his unit prepare for the full-scale offensive while they await the arrival of ammunition and heavy equipment.

Another commander deployed just outside the eastern city of Bakhmut, in Donetsk Oblast, recounted similar operations to test Russian defence.

The 24-year-old captain with the call sign Metis who oversees the planning of operations and reconnaissance for his unit said: "They are reinforcing [their positions] with whatever they can find: wood, even trash."

Metis told the WP that the success of the testing operations does not mean his unit is ready for the full offensive, as it continues to wait for more heavy equipment, armoured vehicles to move large numbers of troops forward and more training.

He said that when his unit first received an advanced anti-tank weapon system, troops trained themselves with the system manual and YouTube tutorials.

With regard to the future counteroffensive, Ukrainian defenders are most concerned about anti-personnel mines.

A lieutenant colonel commanding a tank battalion in the Zaporizhzhia region, who goes by the call sign Hrim (Thunder) said that there are mines on both sides of the front: "We planted a lot of mines, and so did the Russian side."

The WP reported that the fight for Bakhmut "has stretched into the longest and deadliest battle of the war, with steep casualties on each side."

Background:

• The US military intelligence believes that Ukraine's problems with the accumulation of troops, ammunition and equipment may lead to the fact that its military will "significantly lag behind" the original goals of Kyiv regarding the expected counteroffensive.

• Oleksii Reznikov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, said late in March 2023 that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was planning to conduct a counter-offensive on several fronts, but it all depended on the weather conditions. The Ukrainian troops are also waiting for the "right moment", and Reznikov believes it will happen in April or May.
• Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stressed that the narrative of the counter-offensive as a decisive battle is dangerous for Ukraine, as in case of failure, those in the West who pushed Ukraine to compromise with Russia will strengthen their positions. According to him, if the spring counteroffensive is perceived as decisive but does not lead to "100-percent liberation of Ukrainian territory," "some may say that it was the last decisive battle, and now we need to think about an alternative scenario."

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