If Bakhmut is captured, Russian offensive in east will reach its peak – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predict that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will soon reach its peak if the invaders capture Bakhmut.

Source: ISW

Details: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier of the Wagner Group PMC, announced on 8 March that Russian troops had captured the eastern part of Bakhmut.

And this claim, the report says, is consistent with the available visual evidence. The ISW estimated that on 7 March, Ukrainian forces completed a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut across the Bakhmutka River.

The ISW estimates that Russian forces occupy at least 50 percent of Bakhmut as of 8 March.

Analysts suggest that Russian forces are likely to intensify attacks to the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut (north of Opytne and south of Yahidne, respectively) in order to bypass the Bakhmutka River.

The invaders are unlikely to be able to quickly exploit the breach beyond Bakhmut if they capture the city.

Prigozhin suggested on 8 March that the Russian Ministry of Defenсe was using the Wagner Group to bear the brunt of high-intensity attritional urban warfare in Bakhmut and may discard the Wagner Group after capturing Bakhmut so conventional Russian units can continue to attack.

At the same time, Prigozhin did not give his assessment of the probability of success of future Russian offensive operations outside Bakhmut.

The ISW notes that it has found no indication that the Russian military has well-equipped and trained reserve forces for an offensive beyond Bakhmut.

Most Russian units in Donbas are already engaged in offensive operations, including Russian airborne troops that joined the Russian offensive in Bakhmut in January 2023.

ISW therefore continues to assess that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will soon reach its peak if the invaders capture Bakhmut, as the Russian military does not have enough power or reinforcements needed to capture Bakhmut entirely.

Key Takeaways of the specialists of ISW as of 8 March: 

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on 8 March that Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut, a claim consistent with available visual evidence
• Russian forces remain unlikely to exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city.
• The Kremlin may be attempting to establish a new Russian government-controlled armed formation billed as a volunteer unit through the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom.
• A US official denied that US intelligence assessed that a pro-Ukrainian group sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.
• German and Polish officials announced that Germany and Poland will deliver 28 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in March 2023, which will bolster Ukraine’s capabilities to conduct a counteroffensive amidst high Russian tank losses.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on 8 March but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement around the city.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces landed on the Dnipro River Delta islands for the third consecutive day.
• The Kremlin is doubling down on reviving volunteer recruitment campaigns throughout Russia and occupied Ukraine.
• Russian hospitals are continuing to form new medical centers in Russia in an effort to maximize the capacity for overfilling hospitals in occupied territories to treat wounded Russian servicemen.

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