Russians engage experienced Wagnerites in attack on Avdiivka – ISW
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the occupiers are reinforcing their exhausted troops with Wagner Group units to advance on Avdiivka.
Source: ISW
Details: The ISW report suggests that the Russian military leadership likely committed limited, higher-quality Wagner Group elements to the offensive on Avdiivka, potentially to reinforce recent limited tactical successes in the area.
According to military analysts, the rumours about the dismissal of Russian Eastern Group of Forces (Eastern Military District) Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov on 27 March generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space.
In addition, according to the institute, there is speculation about the possible dismissal of the commander of the Western Military District, Colonel-General Yevgeny Nikiforov, whose troops are operating along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in the east of Ukraine.
The report states, "ISW cannot confirm the rumours of Muradov or Nikiforov's dismissal, but it is worth noting that Russian bloggers have been discussing potential dismissals of commanders associated with areas of operations where Russian forces have failed to make significant gains or suffered significant losses".
Russian authorities and some milbloggers have fixated on identifying and punishing individual commanders for the failures of their troops, rather than interrogating and resolving endemic issues in Russian command and control, force structure, and deployment patterns, the experts add.
ISW Key Takeaways for 27 March
- Rumours about the dismissal of Russian Eastern Group of Forces (Eastern Military District) Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov on March 27 generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space.
- Russian milbloggers also had a muted response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 25 announcement to deploy tactical nukes to Belarus, underscoring that Putin’s messaging is aimed at Western rather than domestic Russian audiences.
- Russian military leadership likely committed limited, higher-quality Wagner Group elements to the offensive on Avdiivka, potentially to reinforce recent limited tactical successes in the area.
Russian forces made marginal gains around Svatove and Russian forces continue ground attacks along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.- Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and made gains within Bakhmut.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.
- Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in the south of Ukraine.
- Russian authorities continue forming new volunteer battalions subordinate to irregular formations.
- Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against an occupation law enforcement officer in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.
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