Russia's offensive in Donbas reaches culmination, Ukraine may regain initiative
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has suggested that Russia's offensive in Donbas may be nearing its culmination and that Ukraine has the capacity to regain the initiative and launch a counteroffensive.
Source: ISW
Details: The ISW notes that the pace of Russian offensive operations across the entire war zone has slowed in recent weeks, suggesting that Russia's spring offensive in Donbas may be nearing its culmination.
The Institute also indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have conducted a localised counterattack southwest of Bakhmut, amid heightened discussions in Russia about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area. And these discussions indicate that "Russian sources are increasingly uncertain about the Russian military’s ability to maintain the initiative around Bakhmut."
In addition, the Ukrainian military continues to point out that the massive losses of Russian troops in the area of Vuhledar are seriously inhibiting the Russian offensive potential in Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for War Studies said in its review.
The ISW stated: "The ad hoc reconstitution of existing units for deployment to Vuhledar, as well as the apparent creation of sub-brigade echelon special formations, suggests that Russian combat capabilities in western Donetsk Oblast are greatly degraded."
Taking into account the trends in combat actions, according to ISW, "Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline."
Key inflections in ongoing military operations on 19 March:
- Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces likely secured marginal gains near Bohdanivka (6 km northwest of Bakhmut) amidst continued Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City and may have advanced towards Berdychi, about 10 km northwest of Avdiivka.
- Russian forces continued erecting defensive fortifications throughout southern Ukraine.
- Unknown actors killed a Russian occupation Ministry of Internal Affairs Patrol Service platoon commander with a car bomb in occupied Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian media hypothesized that the attack may have been a partisan attack or a result of Russian infighting.
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