Putin lost control over Russia’s information space – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ceded centralised control over the Russian information space.

Source: ISW report from 11 March 2023

Details: The ISW reported that Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on 11 March.

Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fighting in the city, but Wagner Group fighters are likely becoming increasingly pinned in urban areas, such as the AZOM industrial facility, and are therefore finding it difficult to make significant advances.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that there is infighting in the Kremlin inner circle, that the Kremlin has ceded centralised control over the Russian information space, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently cannot readily fix it.

Zakharova stated that the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Russia’s internal information space due to fighting among unspecified Kremlin "elites."

ISW experts believe that Zakharova’s statement supports several of ISW’s longstanding assessments:

• There is Kremlin infighting between key members of Putin’s inner circle;
• Putin has largely ceded the Russian information space over time to a variety of quasi-independent actors;
• Putin is apparently unable to take decisive action to regain control over the Russian information space.

The ISW report also touches on Wagner financier Yevggeny Prigozhin’s claim that he would transform the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organisation, and will start a new wave of recruitment, after the Battle of Bakhmut

The Wagner Group has recently been expanding recruitment centres throughout Russia, including centres and programs focused on recruiting youth, the ISW reported.

The ISW believes "Prigozhin may be attempting to restructure the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organization to carve out a specialized role among Russian forces in Ukraine as its former role in solely securing tactical gains dissipates with the Wagner Group’s likely culmination around Bakhmut."

Key Takeaways from the ISW report:

• Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on 11 March.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that there is infighting in the Kremlin inner circle, that the Kremlin has ceded centralised control over the Russian information space, and implicitly that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot fix it.
• Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he would transform the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organisation after the Battle of Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian sources report that Ukrainian forces advanced toward Svatove.
• Russian forces continue to establish fortifications in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian mobilised soldiers continue to publicise complaints that commanders treat them poorly and use them as expendable manpower to patch holes in existent formations.
• Russian occupation officials use children’s healthcare to generate dependency on the Russian healthcare system.

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