Russian forces preparing to resume offensive operations around Vuhledar – ISW

Russian forces are preparing to resume offensive operations around Vuhledar, although persistent personnel and ammunition issues will likely continue to constrain Russian forces from advancing, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW gave a reminder that social media footage published on 8 March reportedly shows personnel of the 136th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District appealing to the Russian military command for more artillery ammunition before they replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet near Vuhledar and conduct ground attacks in the area.

The ISW noted that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade bore a significant proportion of the catastrophic losses that Russian forces suffered in their culminated three-week February offensive to capture Vuheldar.

The ISW is convinced Russian forces may be rotating in the 136th Motorised Rifle Brigade to replace a severely degraded formation in hopes of renewing offensives near Vuhledar. At the same time, ISW experts do not believe that the Russians will be able to increase their offensive potential on this front with the help of rotation.

"The 136th Motorised Rifle Brigade is unlikely to achieve tactical advances near Vuhledar that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, and other Russian formations failed to make following months of preparation to start offensives on this front. The likely degradation of other units in the area, significant equipment losses, and the reported continued artillery constraints will likely prevent Russian forces from securing significant tactical gains if they decide to resume offensives in the area," the ISW’s report said.

Internal dynamics within the Russian military may be driving the potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar, the ISW believes. 

"Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly ordered Eastern Military District (EMD) commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov to take Vuhledar at any cost to settle widespread criticism within the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) about the lack of progress and significant losses in the Vuhledar area.

Shoigu recently visited Muradov in western Donetsk Oblast likely to assess the viability of the Vuhledar offensive as well as Muradov’s continued role as EMD commander," the ISW noted.

The ISW previously assessed that Muradov would need new manpower and equipment reserves to follow through on Shoigu’s reported instructions, and the one-for-one replacement of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade by the 136th Motorised Rifle Brigade does not represent a notable fraction of the reinforcements likely required.

The ISW assesses that Russian forces would need to advance upwards of 24 km from the current frontlines around Vuhledar for this offensive to support operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast, a rate of advance that Russian forces have not achieved since the first months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"The resumption of costly offensives around Vuhledar would be a misallocation of already degraded forces to an increasingly nonsensical operational effort, but Muradov’s personal motivations may cause Russian forces in the area to resume these operations nonetheless," the ISW added.

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