Escalation in Donbas will happen, other fronts are just a diversion

Ukrainian Defence Intelligence is anticipating a military escalation in Donbas due to a new offensive by the invaders, whereas intensification of Russian military operations in other areas is possible to divert Ukrainian forces.

Source: Andrii Yusov, representative from Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), on air during the 24/7 national joint newscast

Quote from Yusov: "There will be an escalation. The main [Russian] target is, in fact, the East and Donbas. Other areas may also be affected, but it is mainly about diverting and delaying Ukrainian forces and assets."

Details: According to intelligence reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his military leadership to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts by the end of March.

However, Yusov explains that the Kremlin has changed the deadlines many times. "And this time they won't succeed either," the DIU representative believes.

He noted that conscription is ongoing in Russia, and there are currently 300,000 invaders in Ukraine. According to Yusov, this is an increase in the number, but not the quality of the Russian military.

Quote: "The highest quality units and the highest quality weapons [of Russia – ed.] have been mostly either disabled or destroyed on Ukrainian territory over the past year. And it will certainly not be possible to prepare an adequate force with the same level of training during this time," Yusov said.

Background: 

• On 6 February, Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, said that the Russians will not try to capture all of Ukraine at the same time, as was the case at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but they would conduct concentrated battles on specific fronts during the expected new offensive in February.
• Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that the Russian occupiers have launched a large-scale offensive in Luhansk Oblast, but Ukrainian troops are preventing them from securing any significant gains.
• As Foreign Policy states, Russian occupiers have prepared 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for a new offensive operation in Ukraine.

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