Russians advance on Luhansk Oblast, but Ukrainian Armed Forces prevent them from securing significant gains – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted that Russian forces have begun a major offensive in Luhansk Oblast, but Ukrainian forces are currently preventing them from securing any significant gains.

Source: ISW

Details: According to the ISW, Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun a major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. 

The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in the western part of Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week, and Russian sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupiansk and west of Kreminna.

The ISW noted that geolocated combat footage has confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichna area northwest of Svatove.

The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains. 

The Russian offensive, as the ISW suggests, has not yet reached its full pace; Russian command has not yet committed elements of the 2nd Motorised Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), which were deployed in Luhansk Oblast in January after being deployed to Belarus.

While Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast now have the initiative (in that Russian forces are setting the terms of battle, ending the period of Ukrainian initiative from August 2022), the full commitment of these forces could lead to their eventual culmination along the Svatove-Kreminna line, without achieving their objectives of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. 

"That culmination would likely provide a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to exploit with their own counteroffensive," says the report.

The "People’s Militia" of the non-recognised  "Donetsk People’s Republic" (DPR) command reportedly assumed control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen depleted DPR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive.

The ISW has not previously observed Russian personnel subordinated to a DPR formation and this claim, if true, would suggest that Russian forces may be reinforcing the depleted DPR formations with mobilised personnel from Russia itself because DPR formations are unable to replenish losses on their own.

ISW pointed out that the Russian Defence Ministry will likely struggle to upgrade the poor effectiveness of forces of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" through the rapid integration of Russian personnel.

The ISW report also said that Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare Russia’s military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine while also likely setting further conditions for sanctions evasion.

Russian officials also likely proposed these measures in coordination with a recent decree excluding Russian officials from requirements to list income declarations and proposals to repeal federal procurement procedures. 

The Kremlin may be creating a system of subsidies and benefits designed to have little oversight or accounting. 

The ISW noted that the lack of oversight and accounting would likely allow Russian firms to better evade international sanctions targeting Russia’s military industry.

"The Kremlin’s effort to prepare the Russian military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine in part relies on the ability of Russian military industry to have consistent access to multiple secure supply chains of key foreign components that it otherwise cannot produce," the ISW summed up.

Key ISW Takeaways as of 8 February:

• Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast.
• The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.
• Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) People’s Militia command reportedly assumed control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen degraded DPR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive.
• The reported subordination of Russian mobilised personnel to DPR formations could also suggest that Russian military command may be continuing efforts to integrate ad hoc DPR and Luhansk People‘s Republic (LPR) formations into the Russian Armed Forces, but will likely face significant difficulties.
• Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare Russia’s military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine while also likely setting further conditions for sanctions evasion.
• Russian forces continued offensive actions northwest of Svatove and intensified offensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continue small-scale skirmishes and reconnaissance activity in the Dnipro River delta and on the Kinburn Spit.
• The Wagner Group is reportedly resorting to more coercive tactics in its prison recruitment campaign, possibly in response to the campaign’s declining effectiveness.

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