Russia will try to attack either Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia Oblast – National Security Council of Ukraine

Kyiv believes that Moscow will make Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia oblasts its targets of an expected Russian offensive aimed at reclaiming the initiative in the war.

Source: Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC), in an interview with Reuters on 7 February

Details: The NSDC Secretary says that Russian troops are probing Ukraine's defences in the partially occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which is the Russian-controlled land bridge between occupied Ukraine’s east and Crimea.

He said that Kyiv "doesn’t rule out" a new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, where Russian troops were driven back by a lightning-fast Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer.

Quote: "Attempts at an offensive in either the Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia front will of course be made. How successful they’ll be will depend on us."

Details: Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have said that the Kremlin would attempt another large-scale offensive with freshly enlisted troops in the coming weeks.

Danilov reiterated previous statements that Russia still wanted to capture entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in Ukraine's east, which Moscow declared its territory in last year's "referendums" that Kyiv and the West considered to be a sham.

Fighting is taking place, in particular, around the Ukrainian government-controlled town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. For several weeks now, Russian troops have been trying to surround and capture the city at the cost of huge losses.

As Danilov says, Kyiv expects Russia to try to achieve tangible results by the anniversary of its full-scale invasion on 24 February.

"They need to have something to show their people, and have a major desire to do something big, as they see it, by this date," Danilov said.

Earlier, there were claims that Russian troops might try to attack from Belarus in Ukraine's northwest. However, Danilov said that "it is doubtful that they will be able to attack from this front" as "there are clearly not enough forces there."

Ukraine is also planning a spring offensive, awaiting the supply of promised Western main battle tanks and long-range missiles, including a new kind of guided projectile from the United States that will double the effective range of the fire landed by Ukrainian troops.

Danilov said that heavy armoured vehicles and artillery shells, particularly those of 155mm calibre, are among Kyiv's most urgent needs as Ukraine faces a potential new heavy Russian heavy offensive.

"Very many questions depend on the amount of supplies of shells. Because if you have weapons, but no ammo to fire, then this is a challenge," the Secretary said.

Danilov said that Ukraine would be justified in striking targets inside Russia, although its government does not publicly admit to attacking outside the Ukrainian border.

Background: On 1 February, Oleksii Reznikov, Defence Minister of Ukraine, said that Kyiv expected an offensive of the Russian army in Ukraine's east or south.

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