Russia has no combat power for large-scale offensive in "unrealistic terms"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has stated that Russian troops are preparing an offensive operation in Ukraine, for which they lack combat power.

Source: ISW report from 7 February 2023

Details: Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu held a press conference on the status of the war on 7 February, likely in an attempt to posture the Russian Ministry of Defence as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine.

Shoigu claimed that Russian forces are successfully developing operations near Bakhmut and Vuhledar and claimed that Russian troops have recently taken control of Soledar, Klishchiivka, Pidhorodne, Krasnopolivka, Blahodatne and Mykolaivka in the Bakhmut area and Lobkove in Zaporizhia Oblast.

ISW analysts say that Shoigu likely held this press conference in order to create the guise of formality and legitimacy for the Russian Defence Ministry as it continues efforts to reform the Russian military, prepare for a renewed offensive, and set conditions for prolonged operations in Ukraine. 

ISW states that the Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.

The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia's inability to sustain a rapid and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline.

Russian state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security force, likely in an effort to normalise state-affiliated paramilitary groups and undermine private military companies (PMCs), the report states. 

The Kremlin may be considering implementing some demands previously voiced by the Wagner Group financier, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to build rapport with other nationalist figures who advocated for similar policies.

At the same time, the Russian State Duma further formalised the institution of social benefit schemes in occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further consolidate administrative control of occupied areas.

Key ISW Takeaways as of 7 February:

• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is likely attempting to posture the Russian Ministry of Defence as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine.
• Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.
• The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia’s inability to sustain a rapid and multipronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline.
• Russian state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security force, likely in an effort to normalise state-affiliated paramilitary groups and undermine non-state private military companies (PMCs).
• The Kremlin may be implementing some demands previously voiced by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build rapport with other nationalist figures who advocated for similar policies.
• The Russian State Duma further formalised the institution of social benefit schemes in occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further consolidate administrative control of occupied areas.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces did not make confirmed territorial gains on the southern front.
• Russian officials appear to be investing in railway infrastructure to increase the efficiency of military logistics.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence is reportedly proposing a bill to allow all military personnel, including conscripts, to voluntarily participate in Russian peacekeeping missions.

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