No movement of Russian troops on border with Belarus, no preparation for offensive

Currently, there are no active movements of the Russian military in the border areas of Belarus with Ukraine, which may indicate the absence of signs of preparations for an offensive from this front.

Source: Belaruski Hajun, an independent Belarusian military monitoring media outlet, which monitored military activity on the territory of Belarus on 6 February 

Quote: "The general absence of major movements of units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation indicates their concentration on the training grounds of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, where they are (most likely) engaged in combat training.

And the absence of noticeable movements of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the border areas of the Republic of Belarus with Ukraine is an indirect confirmation that an offensive operation against Ukraine from the territory of the Republic of Belarus will not be carried out in the near future."

Details: During the specified period, aircraft activity was observed only at the airfield in Machulyshchi, where An-26 military transport aircraft from the Russian Air Force flew in from Russia.

No railway activity was recorded.

As for the movement by road, no large convoys with Russian Armed Forces equipment (10+ units) were detected. Individual cars and small convoys of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded in Minsk, as well as on separate sections of the main M5 road.

There were no large convoys of equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (10+ units). Individual cars were recorded in Minsk, Kolodishchi and on the main P88 road.

Apart from that, the issue of leaving most of the aviation equipment that was used by the Russians in flight-tactical training in Belarus has finally been resolved. According to the already formed "tradition" for the Russian Federation, after regular "training", its troops partially remain on the territory of this country.

Therefore, the flight exercise itself should be considered more as an informational and psychological operation, as well as a reason to strengthen its military presence in Belarus.

Background: According to Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, there are about 5,800 Russian soldiers in Belarus at the moment, while a week ago the contingent numbered about 11,000. There is one division of the Iskander tactical missile system, S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems and three MiG-31 interceptor jets.

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